Dean Etheridge
Ireland’s win over France in Week 2 of the 2023 Six Nations Championship might not have been a huge shock. But the manner of the victory and the commanding scoreline has not only seen them go heavy odds on to win the Six Nations, but has also had an effect on the 2023 World Cup betting. Ireland are now third favorites to win the cup, and France have been disposed as favorites by some of the top sportsbooks. For now though, we’re concentrating on the 2023 Six Nations, and with Ireland out of sight in the betting to win the competition, we are now looking for value elsewhere. And we think we have just the bet, which we will reveal in our updated Six Nations rugby union betting picks.
- After two rounds of matches, Ireland lead the 2023 Six Nations table after winning two from two
- Scotland are the only other side to have won their opening two matches, having defeated both England and Wales
- This weekend is a rest week. When the competition resumes on February 25th, Ireland are away to Italy, Wales will host England, and Scotland travel to Paris to take on France on February 26th
Ireland now heavy odds on favorites to win 2023 Six Nations
REPORT: Title-chasing @IrishRugby storm to famous #GuinnessSixNations victory against France to end Les Bleus' 14-match winning run.#IREvFRA
— Guinness Six Nations (@SixNationsRugby) February 11, 2023
After defeating France 32-19 last Saturday, the best rugby betting sites now have Ireland at -400 to win the 2023 Six Nations Championship. The Irish are followed by Scotland at +450, England at +2000, and France at +2500. These odds are taken from Bovada. Please check out our Bovada sportsbook review for more great betting offers.
| 2023 Six Nations Winner Betting ahead of Week 3 |  |  |  |
| Ireland | -400 | -400 | -450 |
| Scotland | +450 | +450 | +425 |
| England | +2000 | +1900 | +2000 |
| France | +2500 | +2500 | +2200 |
| Wales | +100000 | +8000 | +100000 |
| Italy | +100000 | +150000 | +100000 |
The Irish still have two tricky fixtures left to play out of their three remaining matches. In Week 4 they head to Edinburgh to face Scotland away. And in Week 5 they face England in Dublin, where they will expect to be needing a win to complete the Triple Crown, the Six Nations Championship, and the Grand Slam. This makes backing Andy Farrell’s team at -400 slightly risky.
As for Scotland, the fixture list is against them in Week 3. While Ireland are away in Italy, Gregor Townsend’s Scotland team are away to France. Taking on the French in Paris is hard enough at the best of times. But when you’re going there with France looking to bounce back from a defeat, it’s likely to be a far more daunting prospect.
The chances are Scotland will lose in Paris. And if France win with a bonus point, they could go level on points with Scotland, who may already be in third place in the table at that time, depending on how England gets on in Cardiff the previous day (if England win with a bonus point, they will go above Scotland).
Is a bet on France now worth it?
Does this make a bet on France to win the Six Nations good value? Afterall, they are +2500. The answer is probably not, as there are good reasons why they are +2500.
The first, is because France has a far inferior points difference (which will decide places in the table if match points are equal) to both Ireland and Scotland. France has already played Italy, and this is the match that most of the other nations will use to boost their points difference. France only defeated Italy by 5 points (England defeated them by 17).
The second reason is because the French failed to get a bonus point in the defeat to Ireland. Bonus points are important in the Six Nations. A winning bonus point is available, and a losing bonus point is also available. France’s failure to get a bonus point against Ireland makes it even harder for them to win this year’s competition.
England still have to play the two best teams
Steve Borthwick’s England are +2000, that’s shorter than France, to win the competition. So is England worth a bet? Well, if they play like they did against Scotland and Italy (particularly in the 2nd half) throughout the rest of the competition, the answer would categorically have to be no!
But if England can beat Wales, France and Ireland, they will be in with a chance. As well as having the problem that they are trying to reboot themselves under Borthwick, England also has a points difference of 26 to make up on Ireland. But unlike France, England’s destiny is in their own hands. But beating France and Ireland is one hell of a task.
The table after R2 ▲▽ #GuinnessSixNations pic.twitter.com/MIU7M1YPSH
— Guinness Six Nations (@SixNationsRugby) February 13, 2023
Our Picks
For our latest and updated Six Nations rugby betting picks, we’re going to look at the Winner and Top Try scorer market. We’re working on the assumption that Ireland is going to win the competition, so we’re going to double that up as a bet with two in-form wingers who we believe have great chances to be the competition’s top Try scorer.
The two names we’re looking at are James Lowe of Ireland, and Duhan Van der Merwe of Scotland. Alongside Max Malins of England, and Kyle Steyn of Scotland, Lowe and Van der Merwe all have two Tries to their respective names.
With fixtures against Italy still to come for Ireland (and Scotland) we believe that James Lowe in particular looks a great bet to be top Try scorer. Combine Lowe being the top Try scorer in the Six Nations, and Ireland winning the competition at BetOnline, and the odds are +550.
To cover this bet we are also going to bet on Ireland to win the Six Nations and Duhan Van der Merwe to be top Try scorer. Also at +550. The longer odds on these two bets are allowing us to hedge our selection and improve our chances of making a profit.
