Dean Etheridge
The current Six Nations competition has been as entertaining as ever, and has been a great advert for Northern Hemisphere rugby, with the top two ranked sides in the world (Ireland and France) showcasing just why they are the two top-ranked nations. But the competition has not only captivated audiences with its top class rugby, it’s also had a major impact on the betting to win the 2023 Rugby World Cup. France has now lost its status as favorite with a lot of the top sportsbooks. And here we explain all as we take a look at the 2023 Rugby World Cup futures betting market.
- The 2023 Rugby World Cup is being hosted by France, starting on September 8th, and concluding on October 28th
- As hosts, France had been the favorites to win the competition with the majority of the best rugby betting sites
- Ireland have so far dominated the 2023 Six Nations, resulting in a huge shift in the betting to win the World Cup
It was always a bit of a toss up between France and New Zealand when it came to betting to win the 2023 World Cup. Some of the best rugby betting sites couldn’t separate the two, with some slightly favoring France, and others slightly favoring the three-times winners, New Zealand.
But since the start of the 2023 Six Nations, three significant changes to the betting have taken place.
New Favorites
Some sportsbooks have France and New Zealand as joint favorites. But hardly any sportsbook now has France as their outright favorites to win the trophy for the first time in history.
The last time France played New Zealand was in Paris back in 2021, with the hosts winning 40-25. The French followed that win up by completing the Grand Slam in the 2022 Six Nations. And since that period of time, they were widely regarded as the top side in world rugby.
France held off a resurgent New Zealand to beat the All Blacks for the first time since 2009 in a Paris thriller
— BBC ScrumV (@BBCScrumV) November 20, 2021
Only really the French letting the pressure of never having won the World Cup was seen as their main obstacle to lifting the trophy. Whereas New Zealand and South Africa don’t carry that baggage, as both nations have won the trophy three times.
Now as a result of either France’s level of performance dropping off, or Ireland’s improving, the French are no longer the outright favorites to win the trophy. It’s either New Zealand, or France and the All Blacks jointly leading the betting.
We’ve put together an odds table with the odds from all the top rugby betting sites below to show you.
| 2023 Rugby World Cup Winner Betting |  |  |  |
| New Zealand | +325 | +250 | +300 |
| France | +350 | +250 | +325 |
| Ireland | +475 | +500 | +500 |
| South Africa | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| England | +800 | +550 | +750 |
| Australia | +900 | +1000 | +900 |
| Wales | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Argentina | +2500 | +2200 | +2500 |
| Scotland | +7500 | +7500 | +8000 |
| Japan | +15000 | +15000 | +20000 |
| Fiji | +30000 | +35000 | +35000 |
| Samoa | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Italy | +75000 | +75000 | +75000 |
| Tonga | +75000 | +75000 | +75000 |
| Georgia | +75000 | +75000 | +75000 |
| USA | +75000 | +75000 | +75000 |
| Romania | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 |
| Uruguay | +150000 | +150000 | +150000 |
| Namibia | +150000 | +150000 | +150000 |
| Chile | +150000 | +150000 | +150000 |
| Portugal | +150000 | +150000 | +150000 |
Ireland now third favorites
The second significant change in the betting to win the 2023 World Cup is Ireland moving up to be the third favorites. For some months now, Ireland’s performances didn’t seem to be getting the recognition it deserved from the top sportsbooks.
Andy Farrell’s team have been the number one ranked side in the world for some months now. They defeated the All Blacks 2-1 in a series in New Zealand last July, in a series that plenty thought probably should have been 3-0 to Ireland. And they even had to come back from losing the opening Test 42-19, to complete that series win.
🇳🇿☘️ IRELAND WIN THE SERIES 2-1 AGAINST ALL BLACKS! #NZLvIRE pic.twitter.com/p4dHIMQ6yV
— Planet Rugby (@PlanetRugby) July 16, 2022
This win didn’t seem to be greeted with the respect it deserved at the time. But after the Irish overpowered France at the Aviva Stadium in Week 2 of the Six Nations, they’ve now seen their odds to win the 2023 World Cup slashed from +900 to +500. The odds of the Irish winning the competition now seem to better reflect their recent outstanding performances.
England are on the drift
The third significant change in the betting to win the 2023 World Cup has been with England. Having been vying with South Africa at around +500 to +550 as third favorites in the betting, England are now out to fifth favorites at between +500 and +800, depending on where you bet. The +800 is currently available from BetOnline. You can read more about them at our BetOnline sportsbook review.
The English made a change to their head-coach when they sacked Eddie Jones after their dreadful Autumn Internationals series, replacing him with Steve Borthwick. It was hoped that Borthwick might have been able to immediately improve an underperforming England side. But so far this hasn’t been the case.
𝐖𝐄𝐋𝐂𝐎𝐌𝐄 𝐒𝐓𝐄𝐕𝐄 𝐁𝐎𝐑𝐓𝐇𝐖𝐈𝐂𝐊
We’re delighted our former captain and forwards coach Steve Borthwick has been appointed England men’s head coach from today.
Borthwick will be joined by Kevin Sinfield who has been appointed defence coach.
More 👇
— England Rugby (@EnglandRugby) December 19, 2022
There is possibly still a big performance left in England at this Six Nations. Their remaining two fixtures are against France (home) and Ireland (away). So we will soon find out. But as things stand now, England are on the drift to win the Rugby World Cup.
Our Pick
It’s hard to see the winner coming from outside of the current five betting favorites. New Zealand, France, Ireland, South Africa and even England are all capable. Although optimism for England seems to be fading fast. It’s not impossible to see either of France or Ireland win the competition for the first time. And hardly anyone would be shocked to see either New Zealand or South Africa win the trophy for a record fourth occasion.
It’s also difficult making rugby picks this far out. On current form, Ireland is the strongest side in world rugby, but that can quickly change. At +900 a few weeks back, they were great value. But that price has long gone.
It could be worth hedging bets at the moment, and South Africa and England are currently the longest odds. It would take a huge leap of faith to wager on England. But South Africa could be the team currently offering the best value. They are +500 with most sportsbooks, if you see it better than that anywhere, jump on it quickly.
