The Rugby Championship Week 5 Picks

Can you believe it’s almost the end of the 2021 Rugby Championship already?

Yes, this weekend sees the penultimate round of matches, and although New Zealand is running away with the championship, there is still plenty of action to look at for our Rugby picks.

The All Blacks sit top of the group now after winning all four of their matches so far. Their most recent win was a 36-13 win over Argentina last Saturday.

Before that, Ian Foster’s team had already triumphed 39-0 against Argentina and beat Australia 57-22 and 38-21.

Quite simply, the All Blacks have been unstoppable.

The most significant result last weekend though, was Australia beating South Africa 30 points to 17.

The win enabled the Wallabies to close the gap on second-in-the-table South Africa to just 1 point. 

And with the Springboks now looking at back-to-back matches against the all-conquering New Zealand in their remaining fixtures, the Aussies are now firmly in the driving seat to finish second in the table. 

Australia’s win over the Springboks last weekend has now seen them do the double over the South Africans. 

The chances are New Zealand will inflict the same punishment on the Springboks, meaning that Rassie Erasmus‘ team could end up on the receiving end of another unwanted double. 

After starting the competition as New Zealand’s closest rivals, losing twice to Australia will be a massive blow to South Africa.

Unless they can pull something special out of the hat in their remaining two matches, it looks set to be an extremely disappointing championship for the current rugby world champions.

So now, let’s have a look at week 5’s fixtures.

New Zealand v South Africa

  • Venue – Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
  • Date – 25th September
  • Time – 3.05am ET

An extremely early start is required if you want to watch this one. Or maybe don’t go to bed at all.

As alluded to above, it has been a disappointing Rugby World Championship in 2021 for South Africa.

And the rugby betting on the Moneyline suggests things aren’t about to get any better for the Springboks.

In the 3-way match bettingNew Zealand is -500 with Bovada. The Springboks are +350, with a tie sitting at +2800.

In the handicap spreads, things get a bit more interesting. 

New Zealand v South Africa Handicap BettingBodogBetUS
New Zealand -11.5 Points-107.5-110
South Africa +11.5 Points-112-110

Starting from a -11.5 handicap, New Zealand is -107.5 to win. While starting at +11.5, South Africa is -112

So far in this year’s competition, New Zealand has won all four of their matches by comfortably more than these margins. 

They beat Australia by 35 and 17 points. And then Argentina by 39 and 23 points.

Matches against the Springboks are more attritional. And as a result, usually lower scoring. 

But so far in this championship, the Springboks’ matches have yielded 44, 39, 54, and 47 points. The exact opposite!

So in this match-up, my betting pick is for New Zealand to win at -11.5 on the handicap spread. 

New ZealandTo win from -11.5 Handicap
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Now let’s take a look at the second match of the day between the host nation and the side occupying the wooden spoon position.

Australia v Argentina

  • Venue – Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
  • Date – 25th September
  • Time – 6.05am ET

This fixture starts at a slightly more respectable hour for Eastern Time viewers. You only have to be up at 6am to watch this one.

So far in the competition, Australia has been beaten twice by New Zealand. 

And then the Wallabies did the double over South Africa, in what were effectively the two matches to decide who comes second to the All Blacks.

As for the Pumas’, it’s been another sole-destroying competition with defeat after defeat. Four in all, so far! 

Is the gap between Argentina and the three dominant southern hemisphere teams closing? Not really on current evidence. But I would still say they are better off in this competition, than out of it!

Last year Argentina managed two draws against the Wallabies, and in 2019, they only lost by 6 points (in a one-off match at the championship, due to the world cup).

Go back slightly further to 2018, and we see that Argentina even won against Australia, in Australia. Back in that fixture, the Pumas ran out 23-19 winners.

Taking all this into consideration, the Pumas must believe they can give the Aussies a proper game!

On the Moneyline, Australia is -333.3 to win their third consecutive match. Argentina is +260, and the draw is +1800. 

Australia v Argentina Handicap BettingBodogBetUS
Australia -8.5 Points-117.6-110
Argentina +8.5 Points-103.1-110

On the handicap spread, Australia is -117.6 from a -8.5 points start. Argentina is -103.1 with a +8.5 points start. 

I expect this to be a close call, but ultimately I believe that Australia is in too good a form at the moment.

So my second pick is Australia to win at -8.5 on the handicap.

AustraliaTo win from -8.5 Handicap
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Week 6 of the 2021 Rugby Championship follows hot on the heels of this weekend’s fixtures. Also just started is the new Gallagher Premiership season in the UK, so now is the ideal time to keep a close eye on our rugby betting page for all the latest betting offers and expert picks!

Dean Etheridge

Dean has spent the last 10 years editing, and writing for his own football and cricket betting websites. He is passionate about sports and betting, and enjoys writing about both topics. In his spare time, Dean loves to spend time with his family, although he believes they just think he is their taxi driver!

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