Newcastle has been hard to beat all season, but goals have been hard to come by in recent games and that makes the draw the best pick when Liverpool head to Tyneside this weekend.
- Newcastle v Liverpool
- February 18 2023, 12:30 ET
- At St James’s Park, Newcastle
Who do Bettors Favor?
According to the best-rated online sportsbooks Premier League bettors are not yet ready to abandon Liverpool despite its poor form. Jurgen Klopp’s team is only narrowly bigger in price than Newcastle, at odds of +185 and +152 respectively, while the draw is +256.
|Newcastle v Liverpool|
Newcastle Need to Convert Draws
Newcastle’s unbeaten Premier League run is now 17 and Eddie Howe’s team has been in and around the Premier League top four for most of the season, but there is frustration among the St James’s Park faithful at the team’s inability to convert draws into wins.
In recent weeks, Newcastle has drawn against Leeds, West Ham, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth, and a return of three goals in its last six Premier League games is way below expectations. It has also opened the door to fifth-placed Tottenham, which is only two points behind, although having played a game more.
That defensive solidity, however, remains an asset, particularly at home, where Newcastle has not lost in the topflight all season. In fact, Howe’s team has conceded just six goals in twelve games at St James’s Park, so Liverpool will have to be firing on all cylinders to get a result here.
Liverpool Still Has Work to Do
Liverpool’s clash with Everton last time resulted in a 2-0 win and the kind of performance that will have reassured fans, but there is still a lot of work for it to do.
The Reds go into this weekend’s round of Premier League fixtures in ninth place in the standings, nine points behind Newcastle, although with a game in hand. That victory in the Merseyside derby may prove to be a turning point, but the fact that it was Liverpool’s first win in 2023 indicates just what a nightmare of a season this has developed into, as Arsenal, Manchester United and Newcastle overtook them in the battle to be the main challengers to Manchester City.
There is still time for Liverpool to get back into top-four contention, but it needs to build a recovery starting now and hope that other teams falter. In particular, Klopp will be keen to improve on his team’s away record. Liverpool has won only two of its last ten away games, and so far this year, has already lost to Brighton, Brentford and Wolves on the road.
EPL Betting Head-to-Head
Newcastle and Liverpool are two of the best-supported clubs in England and have a rivalry that dates back to the nineteenth century. They first met in November 1893, when Liverpool won 5-1 in a Division Two game, and the Reds have enjoyed the better of this matchup over the years.
The head-to-head record shows 90 wins for Liverpool, to 50 for Newcastle and 44 draws. Liverpool has enjoyed long periods of dominance in the rivalry, losing only once between 1951 and 1968, and is currently enjoying another spell, having gone 12 games unbeaten against Newcastle since April 2016.
This is a rivalry that has produced some epic encounters, most notably in the 1995-96 and 1996-97 seasons when both league fixtures at Anfield ended in 4-3 wins for Liverpool. The Reds also won the last meeting between the two, back in August, thanks to a goal in the eighth minute of injury time.
EPL Team News
Newcastle is struggling with a lengthy injury list although the team news looks a little better for Eddie Howe than it did at the weekend. Joe Willock, Allan Saint-Maximin and Miguel Almiron all picked up injuries against Bournemouth, but only Willock is likely to miss this one.
The Magpies are still without a string of players, however, including Matt Targett, Emil Krafth and Javier Manquillo, while Bruno Guimaraes is also out due to suspension.
Liverpool’s injury problems have started to ease in recent weeks. Diogo Jota, Virgil van Dijk and Roberto Firmino were back in the squad for the Everton game, although Ibrahima Konate, Luis Diaz and Thiago Alcantara are all still out injured.
EPL Match Betting Pick
There is a case for saying that Liverpool has turned the corner and with a team strengthened by players returning from action, the Reds could have a good chance to get a crucial win here, against a home team that is weakened by several absences.
Newcastle’s success this season has been based on a strong defense, however, and I think that Howe’s team can rely on that strength to see them through here and earn a draw, which is the biggest priced option in the Match Betting market.