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London will be the setting for this year’s Champions League semifinal between Arsenal and PSG. PSG have celebrated a Ligue 1 title in the past fortnight thanks to an unbeaten run clinching the championship early. Now fully focused on winning the European treble, they must keep things close if they wish to return to Paris optimistic. Read on for expert Champions League picks and explore stats and betting tips for Arsenal vs PSG.
- Champions League Semifinal
- Arsenal FC vs Paris Saint-Germain FC
- Tuesday, April 29, 2025
- 3 PM EST
- Emirates Stadium, London, England
- Paramount+
Champions League Picks: Arsenal vs PSG Betting Odds
Arsenal are the favorites to win this first leg at home, but not by too much. The Londoners are (+111) to win the match. PSG are lined at (+240) to do the same, good for an implied probability of 29.4%. A draw is priced at (+257).
Champions League 
Arsenal +111 +110 +110 PSG +238 +240 +240 Draw +257 +250 +250
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting lines and learn about 2025 Champions League betting strategy.
Arsenal Hunting for Glory Late in Season
All but mathematically eliminated from the Premier League title race, Arsenal’s last hope at a trophy remains in the Champions League. Manchester United booted the club out of the FA Cup on penalties and were also eliminated from the League Cup by eventual winners Newcastle. Last round saw Arsenal dominate Real Madrid on their home leg by a score of 3-0. Declan Rice played the role of hero with two sensational free-kick goals.
Manager Mikel Arteta appeared emotional after Rice’s beautiful set-piece finish as it broke a long drought of goals scored by Arsenal from a free kick. Known as the set-piece masterminds with their dedicated special teams coach ever-present on the byline, Arsenal had only lived up to their reputation through corners. Often described as an “equalizer,” set pieces can give underdogs hope of scoring against clubs who dominate possession in free play. It has been both a gift and a curse for the Gunners.
If the double-edged sword continues to strike in their favor, Arsenal should have high hopes of winning their first-ever Champions League trophy. It would also represent just their second trophy since winning the FA Cup in 2020 (FA Community Shield, 2023). Arteta & Co. will look to limit scoring from PSG to make their visit to Paris less daunting.
PSG Survive Late Scare Against Aston Villa
PSG narrowly avoided a catastrophic exit from the Champions League at the hands of Birmingham-based Aston Villa last week. After a 3-1 victory at Parc des Princes in the first leg, all the Parisians had to do was prevent a loss of multiple goals. And after two early goals, PSG felt comfortable that their 4-goal aggregate lead was safe. But Aston Villa scored three unanswered before the hour mark.
PSG managed to hang on for a 5-4 aggregate win, securing back-to-back Champions League semifinal appearances. With the domestic league wrapped up and their French Cup final against Reims set for late May, PSG can turn their attention entirely to their continental dreams. For those counting, yes PSG are indeed still eligible to win a European treble and are the most likely club to do so. Reims are a less formidable threat than most in France, leaving just four total matches left for PSG to stamp their place in history.
Perhaps that forward thinking is to blame for the club’s disappointing draw to relegation candidate Nantes this midweek. The result did continue their unbeaten domestic run, however. No side has ever finished a top-flight French campaign undefeated, yet PSG are just four fixtures away from doing so.
If history repeats itself, PSG are in for a tough night in London. Arsenal defeated PSG 2-0 back in the league phase of the tournament courtesy of a strong pressing performance. Luis Enrique highlighted that tactic in his preview of this tie, mentioning game state also as an important factor in what “version” of Arsenal their side will face.
Top Champions League Picks
The first leg of any two-legged aggregate format is always tense. Both sides are fearful of the scoreline getting out of hand, and don’t want to make any bold decisions until their backs are against the wall. If Arsenal open up the scoring, they will likely shift to a low block and hold out for the victory. And if the game remains tied for a significant period of time, I don’t see a lot of scoring chances for either side.
That means that in two out of three potential outcomes, we will likely witness a lower-scoring match. The betting total for Arsenal vs PSG is set at 2.5, a lower number than most Champions League matches. However, I believe it should be even lower. Arsenal and PSG combined for just two goals in their first meeting in October, and they only tallied 1.1 expected goals.
This match is primed to be a slow burner to set the scene for a crucial battle in Paris the following week. Anything otherwise is likely an anomaly. Go with under 2.5 goals at BetOnline, available at plus money at the moment.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
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