Atlas the Best Bet in Clasico

One of the highlights of the Liga MX season is the Clasico Tapatio and while both Guadalajara and Atlas are struggling, it is the visitors who look the best bet.

Who do Bettors Favor?

Checking out the best online sportsbooks we can see that Guadalajara are rated as favorites for this game, despite being lower in the Liga MX Apertura than Atlas. The home side are priced at around +120 for the win, while the visitors are available at +270, and the draw can be backed at +214.

Guadalajara v AtlasBetOnlineMyBookie

Guadalajara Struggling

There was some optimism around at Guadalajara at the end of the Clausura 2021/22 season when the team put together a five-game winning run under the guidance of interim coach Ricardo Cadena, so when he was given the job on a permanent basis, that seemed like a wise move. The addition of Alan Mozo who is one of the most exciting full-backs in the league suggested that the future was looking bright.

Unfortunately, reality has not lived up to expectations. It took Chivas three games to score their first goal of Apertura and two more games to earn a second. In total they have found the net three times in seven games, a streak of poor offensive performances that has not unsurprisingly delivered exactly zero wins. One place off the bottom of the table, Guadalajara are struggling and desperate for a win.

Atlas Chasing a Three-Peat

Having achieved the hugely impressive feat of back-to-back championships, Atlas came into Apertura 2022/23 chasing a three-peat. In pursuit of that rare achievement, they brought in Edison Flores, Idekel Dominguez and Mauto Manotas to further strengthen the squad.

Unfortunately, things haven’t gone to plan for the reigning champions. A string of injuries has weakened the team and they’ve been leaking goals, conceding 11 in their last six. Going into their last match against Queretaro, they’d lost three in a row, but a 3-1 victory over Liga MX’s bottom team may have steadied their ship, moving them up five places to 13th in the table.

Liga MX Betting Team News

The worst team news for Guadalajara was the absence of Jose Juan Macias, who will miss the whole of the Apertura and the Clausura as he undergoes cruciate ligament surgery. They are also struggling in midfield where they’ve lost team captain Jesus Malina to injury and Fernando Gonzalez to suspension, following his red card in the last game against Mazatlan. Cadena’s team will also be without centre back Antonio Briseno, who has picked up a knee injury and is out until early next month.

Atlas are also struggling with injury absences. Their new center-forward Mauro Manatas will be out until the spring at the earliest, while defensive midfielder Aldo Rocha is suffering from a hamstring problem and is not expected to be available for selection until September.

Liga MX Betting Pick

Local derbies have a narrative of their own and while this game is not as fierce as the so-called ‘Super Clasico’ between Guadalajara and Club America, it is the oldest rivalry in Mexican football, dating back to 1916 and a time when Atlas were the wealthy newcomers.

However, both teams are struggling right now, which means there could be a touch of desperation added to the usual derby tension. Atlas have appeared to defy football gravity so far with their back to back championships so were probably overdue a poor run of form. Still, they have at least been scoring goals and can still boast one of the best forward lines in Liga MX.

Guadalajara meanwhile are looking very poor at the moment. Without a victory to their name, they will here be taking on a strong Atlas attack without being able to call on their first choice central midfielders. That will surely leave them vulnerable, so despite having home advantage, the best betting pick is to keep the faith with Atlas and back them to pick up another win.

AtlasTo beat Guadalajara
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Liga MX Goals Betting Pick

Beside the lack of wins on their record, the other fact you notice when looking at the Guadalajara results this season is the lack of goals. In seven games, Chivas have scored four and conceded six for an average of a little over 1.4 per game, and they are likely to be on the defensive again here.

Atlas have more goal scoring potential, but this fixture has tended to be low scoring. Six of the last ten encounters have ended with two or fewer goals, with four of them ending 1-0. That suggests a potential goals betting pick here. If you want to play it safe, you could go for Under 2.0 goals at -122 with BetOnline, but it could be worth opting for Under 1.5 goals at +144 with MyBookie.

Under 1.5 goalsGuadalajara v Atlas
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Pandora Hughes

Pandora Hughes has been working in the betting industry for over 15 years and has written for some of the big players in the sector, including Betfair, ESPN and Sporting Life. She has an in-depth knowledge of sports betting and you can read her reviews, features and previews on this site.

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