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Dortmund and Mainz face off this weekend in a top-tier Bundesliga clash. Mainz is the underdog despite being 3rd on the table, 8 spots ahead of Dortmund. Indeed, Dortmund are a bottom-half club at the moment after a disastrous spell under Nuri Sahin. Continue reading for an expert Dortmund vs Mainz prediction and explore stats and tips for Mainz betting in 2025.
- 1. Bundesliga
- Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FSV Mainz 05
- Sunday, March 30, 2025
- 11:30 AM EST
- Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany
- ESPN+
Dortmund vs Mainz Betting Odds
Dortmund are the betting favorites as they enjoy the comforts of home on Sunday. The hosts are (-145) to win and salvage what’s left of their season. Mainz will be up against the odds at (+372). That’s an implied probability to win of 21.2%. A draw is lined at (+310).
Bundesliga 
Dortmund -147 -147 -145 Mainz +370 +372 +360 Draw +298 +302 +310
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and view Bundesliga betting 2025 odds.
Jadon Sancho to Return to Dortmund?
We have documented the struggles for Dortmund in the Bundesliga all year. As Dortmund prepares for its second consecutive quarterfinals appearance in the Champions League, it will be forced to reflect on its domestic troubles. 11th on the table is a difficult pill for The Yellow Wall to swallow. If Dortmund holds its current position through the end of the season, it would be their first finish below the midpoint in the Bundesliga since 2007/08, when they finished 13th.
New manager Niko Kovac hopes to change that, but his results have not been any more inspiring so far. Since joining the club in late January, Kovac has split the points evenly across 10 matches, with 4 wins and 4 losses. It’s likely Dortmund look elsewhere for a long-term solution once this season is complete.
In other personnel news, Jadon Sancho has made headlines for his request to return to Dortmund. A four-year stint with Dortmund ended with a change to Man United, but relations quickly turned sour, as they seem to do with most players at Old Trafford these days. Sancho was loaned out to Dortmund and most recently with Chelsea.
It will likely be up to Chelsea if Sancho returns to Westfalenstadion, however. His loan deal included an option to buy and the club seems to be impressed with the still-young winger under their tutelage. With only six goal contributions in 23 appearances for the Blues, it’s surprising to hear such a glowing review.
Mainz Set for Best Club Finish in Bundesliga History
Unbeaten in six Bundesliga matches on the bounce, Mainz are a serious threat to continuing Dortmund’s woes. Danish manager Bo Henriksen has been a saving grace for the club having dwelled in mediocrity in the Bundesliga for many seasons. Now sitting in 3rd with just 8 games to play, Henriksen has positioned his club to earn their best finish ever.
But not all the credit should be handed to the boss. 24-year-old striker Jonathan Burkardt has exploded this season, scoring 16 goals in 23 appearances with Mainz. Although Burkardt is signed with Mainz until 2027, his contract has not dismayed clubs from demonstrating interest in the star player, who is now Mainz’s all-time leading Bundesliga goalscorer. Mainz are asking for over $20 million for Burkardt as inquiries arrive from Bayern, West Ham, Milan, Leverkusen, and Eintracht Frankfurt.
That’s an affordable price for many bigger clubs like Bayern, who likely see Burkardt as a suitable backup for Harry Kane. Burkardt is also indirectly linked to Bayern via his agency, which also represents Bayern goalkeeper Manuel Neuer. If Burkardt is sold, Mainz will have to rely on Nadiem Amiri for firepower.
Fortunately for Mainz, their defense has seen as much of an improvement as their offense. In fact, it may be their strongest aspect of play. The club boasts the third-best defense in terms of goals allowed. Their current tally halves that of last year’s at the same point in the domestic term. Such figures arguably deserve a Champions League appearance, which would mark a first in club history.
Dortmund vs Mainz Prediction
It’s more than pride on the line between Dortmund and Mainz Sunday afternoon. Both sides have European qualification on their mind despite being 8 places apart in the table. It’s do or die for the Black and Yellows who must take advantage of any remaining home matches. It’s been a rewarding fixture for the 05ers as of late, with Mainz remaining unbeaten in their last four meetings.
Mainz has gained a reputation for stalwart defensive work, but their analytics paint a different picture. While Mainz has allowed 16 goals on the road, they have actually conceded over 23.31 expected goals. That’s a massive discrepancy highlighting the club’s “luck” and potentially opening the door for some value in the betting market.
My projections indicate that over 2.5 goals should be lined fairly at (-180). Instead, we are getting odds of (-136) at BetUS. I think with significant portions of both squads well-rested after the international break, we shouldn’t see too much of a dip in scoring based on fatigue. While in the past I have faded Dortmund, I think there is value in fading Mainz defense as well. That means backing both clubs to score more so than the betting market is a smart play, and why I am looking towards the over.
In conclusion, I believe this total is too low and will back a high-scoring affair to occur in Dortmund this Sunday. I envisage both clubs scoring with Dortmund ultimately prevailing, but would not be surprised to see Mainz coming home victorious either. It’s always fun to root for goals, and this match gives us the betting opportunity to do precisely that.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
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