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Mexico and Costa Rica meet in what should be a friendly atmosphere for El Tri in Las Vegas. With both sides picking up two victories to begin their Gold Cup campaigns, this match will decide Group A and, theoretically, a better path to the final. Mexico are favorites to defend the title and retain Copa Oro bragging rights. Read on for an expert CONCACAF Gold Cup betting prediction and explore stats and tips to bet on Mexico vs Costa Rica in 2025.
- CONCACAF Gold Cup, group stage
- Mexico vs Costa Rica
- Sunday, June 22, 2025
- 10 PM EST
- Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
- Fox Sports 1, Fubo, ViX, Univision, TUDN
CONCACAF Gold Cup Betting Odds: Mexico vs Costa Rica
Mexico are (-170) favorites to complete a perfect run in the group stage with a win over Costa Rica. The underdogs can be grabbed at a price of (+420), while a draw pays out at (+290). Both sides are already qualified for the next round.
Gold Cup 
Mexico -170 -170 -170 Costa Rica +420 +420 +420 Draw +290 +290 +290
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Can Mexico Win a Record 10th Gold Cup in 2025?
Known as the Copa Oro in Spanish-speaking countries, the Gold Cup is a favored competition for the Mexican national team. The squad has won 9 titles and haven’t failed to make at least the semifinals since 2005. Such statistics are not surprising to those familiar to CONCACAF tournaments, which are typically dominated by the Big Three: Mexico, USA and Canada.
El Tricolor have faced significant criticism in recent years for their struggles against the USMNT as well as lackluster performances in the World Cup and other prestigious tournaments. The Gold Cup, which has now taken a back seat to the Nations League, has been Mexico’s crutch. The 2023 winners benefitted from a deeper squad than their competitors, ultimately prevailing over Panama in the final. Mexico will need to dig into their long list of young, hungry players to repeat that success.
It’s a sort of changing of the guard in the Mexican national team camp as the faces synonymous with El Tri departing. Memo Ochoa has been relegated to the bench despite decades of leadership experience, with America goalkeeper Luis Malagon taking his place in the starting lineup. Meanwhile, Andres Guardado announced his retirement last fall, Mexico’s most-capped player. Carlos Vela, too, has hung up his boots: Vela is considered by many to be the best talent to come out of Mexico, with stints at Arsenal, Real Sociedad, and LAFC.
Costa Rica Looking for First Victory vs Mexico Since 2013
It took 13 minutes of stoppage time and an awarded penalty, but Costa Rica earned an opening win in the Gold Cup in a thrilling 4-3 battle against Suriname. Sundragon Stadium acted as host to a majority-Costa Rica crowd that got their money’s worth and then some. Los Ticos brought that momentum to AT&T Stadium to secure another close win, 2-1, over the Dominican Republic on Wednesday.
The knockout-clinching victory required more late-game magic with Josimar Alcocer scoring an 85’ winner. As there are no third-place qualification spots in the Gold Cup, the result marked the Dominican Republic’s elimination from the competition. Costa Rica’s goalscoring has exploded in their last six competitive matches with 27 goals scored. It will be tricky to continue on their 4+ goal average against Mexico, however, having not scored against them in 5 straight meetings.
Mexico vs Costa Rica CONCACAF Gold Cup Betting Prediction
These sides have now played three times in just over a week and have less incentive to win than in prior games. A draw would give Mexico the group victory based on goal differential. That puts the onus on Costa Rica to get a win in Las Vegas. The runner-up of this group is slotted to play the winner of Group D, which is likely to be USA.
While avoiding USA is the preferred route, there are arguments against going all-in on this game. Fatigue will be creeping into the locker room and a knockout position is already guaranteed. Managers will heavily consider rotating key players, preferring to have them fit and fresh for a knockout match than an inconsequential group stage affair.
While this game on paper appears to be a winner-take-all battle, I don’t think we will see the fight to win from both sides. Mexico will look to slow the game down and come away unscathed. Costa Rica, at odds of (+420), are given just a 19.2% chance to win. Such probability indicates a multi-score match from Costa Rica is unlikely, and by discounting Mexico’s offensive output, there is some value on the total.
After opening at (+108), the under 2.5 total goals has taken some sharp money, now down to even on most books. Bovada, however, is still offering (+105). I like this number and this angle here. There is typically a ton of value in unders in international tournaments, but we usually don’t see it realized until the later stages. Here is the perfect opportunity to grab u2.5s at plus money before the totals get even lower in the knockout stages.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
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