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Two teams in the race for Champions League qualification match up this weekend in the first game of the English Premier League schedule this weekend. On the banks of the river Trent, City will look to leapfrog their 3rd-placed opponents. Forest have been the surprise of the 2024-25 campaign, and will likely see themselves playing in Europe later this fall. Continue reading for a Nottm Forest vs Man City prediction and explore stats and a breakdown of EPL expert picks.
- English Premier League
- Nottingham Forest FC vs Manchester City FC
- Saturday, March 8, 2025
- 7:30 AM EST
- City Ground, West Bridgford, Nottingham, England
- USA, Universo, Peacock, Youtube TV, Fubo
Nottm Forest vs Man City Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?
Man City are the favorites in this top-4 clash despite having to make the trip down south. The Cityzens are (-110) to earn the maximum haul and jump to 3rd on the table. Nottm Forest are (+292) underdogs, a surprising number if one were just to look at the records of each side. A draw is lined at (+290).
Premier League 
Nottm Forest +292 +270 +270 Man City -110 -110 -110 Draw +290 +285 +285
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Nottm Forest Slipping in Recent Weeks
After racing to the top of the table to begin the season, 2025 has not been as kind to Nottingham Forest. Indeed, the Tricky Trees have dropped points in five of their eight matches this calendar year. Draws to Arsenal and Liverpool are inspiring, but a 5-0 loss to Bournemouth, along with losses to Newcastle and Fulham, have put their top-4 position in a precarious place.
All those defeats did come on the road however. In fact, Nottingham has lost at home just twice, to those same opponents (Newcastle and Fulham). They are undefeated at the City Ground since November of last year and have pitched back-to-back shutouts there. City managed to defeat Forest 3-0 at the Etihad in the reverse fixture, so the players will be anxious to get one back this weekend.
While it feels like we are nearing that part of the year where fixtures become less critical as title hopes are out the window, this match is still very important. Manchester City missing out on European participation next year would be catastrophic, but for Forest it will be a historic achievement. Not since 1995-96 has the banks of the river Trent hosted a European tie, and this season they have the chance to clinch qualification to the top European competition.
Man City Still Awaiting Verdict Over 130 Charges
While it has been a very joyous season for Nottingham Forest, City supporters have not had much to celebrate. Six titles in seven years makes expectations hard to deliver upon, and this term has been truly sobering for Man City. What makes matters worse is the dark cloud hanging over the club. A verdict on their 130 charges stemming from financial wrongdoings is yet to be given, but Pep Guardiola stated he anticipates a decision any day now. The threat of expulsion from the Premier League has been stated as a possibility, but the thought of such a punishment seems unthinkable.
Guardiola has reiterated he is fully on board with the club regardless of the harshness of any punishments levied, which could lead to a rather amusing situation in which one of the best clubs in the world must fight for promotion in the EFL Championship. All hypotheticals aside, Guardiola has a chance to rescue this lost season yet. After bowing out of the Champions League at the hands of defending champions Real Madrid, only the FA Cup remains as possible silverware for Man City.
Cinderella side Plymouth Argyle took a lead in the 38th minute over Man City in the 5th round of the esteemed cup at the weekend, but City managed to take care of business in what resulted in a 3-1 victory. Their reward? A draw against arguably the toughest opponent remaining, Bournemouth, away in the quarterfinals.
EPL Expert Picks: Nottm Forest vs Man City Prediction
Nottingham Forest will likely see this match as a massive opportunity to prove they belong in the top four of the Premier League. No one believed they would make it this high in the standings, including myself, despite being quite bullish on the club. In fact, expected points statistics would argue they are actually quite lucky to be where they are. Their current xP tally puts Forest 11th on the table according to Understat.
Manchester City has been a bit of a mixed bag of results in recent fixtures. After getting embarrassed by Arsenal 5-1, they lost to Real Madrid in both legs of their knockout tie. But wins over Newcastle and Tottenham (clean sheets in both) have kept their Premier League record in good shape, despite a loss to Liverpool. It appears City struggle against top clubs and handle themselves well against lower competition. So is Nottingham Forest fraudulent, and therefore in danger this weekend?
I think not. My projections favor Nottm Forest quite heavily, taking into account their incredibly strong home record. I think the line should nearly be flipped and therefore see plenty of value in backing the Trees at the current price. We can get odds of (-106) for Forest to earn a result here, a number I like quite a bit. There is no reason City should be priced as odds-on favorites on the road against an elite defense like Forest’s.
Go with Nottingham Forest to win or draw at (-106) at BetOnline. This is one of my favorite bets across Europe this weekend.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
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