Pick Leeds to Win at Villa Park

  • Aston Villa v Leeds United
  • Friday, January 13th, 2023, 15:00 ET
  • At Villa Park, Aston, Birmingham

Two inconsistent teams meet in the Premier League on Friday but Leeds look the better pick to gain the win against their West Midlands hosts.

Who do Bettors Favor?

Checking out the best-rated online sportsbooks we can see that Aston Villa is the strong favorite here, priced at odds of -105 to beat Leeds. The Yorkshire team is rated as the big outsider at +325 while the draw can be backed at up to +260.

Aston Villa v LeedsBetOnline ReviewMyBookie ReviewBetUS Review
Aston Villa-105-106-110
Leeds United+308+305+325

Aston Villa Hard to Predict

Aston Villa manager Unai Emery has a reputation for producing teams that are not always exciting to watch but which get results, particularly in Cup competitions, but seven games into his tenure at Villa Park, Emery has not yet been able to find the level of consistency he wants from his teams.

Across those seven games, Villa has been hard to predict. Excellent wins against Manchester United, Tottenham and Brighton in the Premier League have been balanced by a home defeat to a beatable Liverpool side and a hard-fought point against relegation-threatened Wolves.

It has also been strange to see an Emery team struggle so badly in Cup football. Villa crashed out of the League Cup in his second game in charge, and then endured a bigger humiliation at the weekend, making an early exit from the FA Cup at the hands of League Two team Stevenage at Villa Park. That’s the kind of humiliation that can quickly drain managerial credit and Emery will be keen to move on with a few victories in the Premier League.

Leeds Fighting Hard for Marsch

Jesse Marsch earned a lot of credit for keeping Leeds in the Premier League last season, although it was a close-run thing, but so far this year has underlined what a hard fight it will be to stay in the top flight.

Leeds didn’t win a game between late August and October 23 and lost both games on either side of the World Cup break. Yet Marsch’s side has also shown the ability to beat top-half teams and to dig in and avoid defeat when not playing well.

Leeds has beaten Chelsea and Liverpool this season and following the defeat to Manchester City on the resumption of Premier League action, it managed battling draws against high-flying Newcastle and West Ham, underlining the kind of fighting spirit that will be needed to hold off the relegation threat.

Premier League Betting Head-to-Head

These are two of English football’s most famous clubs and they have a rivalry that goes back to 1924 when Aston Villa beat Leeds United 3-0 in the FA Cup.

They haven’t always played in the same division, but their rivalry has produced some memorable games, including the 5-2 win for Leeds in 1991 and a 3-3 Premier League draw last February.

Villa has the better overall record when it comes to winning trophies, and it is not a surprise to see that it has the lead in this head-to-head matchup, winning 42 of the 105 games it has played against Leeds. The Yorkshire club has won 32 and there have also been 32 draws.

Premier League Betting Team News

Diego Carlos is still out for Aston Villa and will remain a long-term absentee due to his Achilles injury, while John McGinn is also likely to miss out due to a hamstring strain.

Otherwise, Unai Emery has a full squad to choose from, although it is likely that there will be several changes from the weekend’s lineup. There still appears to be no place for Aaron Ramsey, however, as the former Arsenal and Juventus star did not even make the bench against Stevenage.

The team news for Leeds is a little brighter than in recent weeks. Although Stuart Dallas remains sidelined with a knee injury, both Luis Sinisterra and Adam Forshaw are back in first-team training, as is key striker Patrick Bamford, who could make a welcome return.

Elsewhere Jesse Marsch has to decide whether to give teenager Darko Gyabi another start in central midfield, while new signing Maximilian Wober could be in line for his home debut at left-back after coming at the hour mark against Cardiff in the FA Cup.

Premier League Match Betting Pick

Home advantage hasn’t been worth much to Aston Villa this season and it is a surprise to see Emery’s team priced at such short odds going into this game. Villa has won only four times at home in the Premier League and that is a problem that Emery will be keen to resolve.

In the short term, however, it presents an opportunity for Leeds United. Jesse Marsch’s team can be dangerous and if Bamford is back in the lineup, then Leeds looks like a value pick in the match betting market. Games involving Leeds also tend to be high scoring so there could also be some value in betting on goals here.

Leeds To beat Aston Villa
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Over 2.5 goalsAston Villa v Leeds
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Noelle Matthews

Noelle Matthews is a tennis and soccer fan who has been working in the betting industry for over 15 years and has written for some of the big players in the sector, including Betfair, ESPN and Sporting Life. She has an in-depth knowledge of both tennis and soccer betting and you can trust her reviews to include the most precise, knowledgeable information available.