by
The Derby della Madonnina takes center stage this Sunday as Inter Milan welcomes AC Milan to the San Siro for one of football’s most passionate rivalries. Both teams enter this clash positioned near the top of Serie A, making this encounter potentially decisive in the title race. Inter currently leads the table on goal difference ahead of Roma, while Milan sits just two points behind their city rivals. This marks the first derby in the newly co-owned San Siro, adding extra significance to an already monumental fixture. Read on for an expert Inter Milan prediction and explore stats and tips for Serie A betting in 2025.
- Italian Serie A
- Internazionale vs AC Milan
- Sunday, November 23, 2025
- 2:45 PM EST
- San Siro, Milan, Italy
- Paramount+
Inter vs Milan Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?
The betting markets have established Inter as clear favorites for Sunday’s showdown at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. The designated hosts are (-114) to secure a massive three points in the Serie A title race. Their rivals are priced at (+330) to pull off the upset.
Serie A 
Inter -115 -116 -114 Milan +330 +326 +330 Draw +255 +253 +245
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting lines and explore our guide on Serie A betting in 2025.
Inter’s Championship Credentials Under Pressure
Christian Chivu’s Inter squad arrives at this derby riding a wave of momentum with three consecutive victories. The Nerazzurri have demonstrated impressive defensive solidity, securing clean sheets in three of their last five matches. Their recent away victories against Roma and Verona showcase the tactical discipline that has made them early title favorites. However, Chivu’s record in high-pressure matches raises questions, having suffered defeats to both Juventus and Napoli this season.
Inter’s attacking trio of Bonny, Martinez, and Sucic has been instrumental in their recent success. The combination has proven effective in exploiting defensive gaps, particularly during counter-attacking situations. Their ability to maintain possession while creating chances could prove decisive against Milan’s inconsistent backline.
The injury list presents significant challenges for Inter’s preparation ahead of this crucial fixture. Key midfielder Henrikh Mkhitaryan remains sidelined with a thigh injury, while Hakan Çalhanoğlu is unavailable due to a wrist problem. Denzel Dumfries faces a fitness test with a muscle issue, and Marcus Thuram’s participation remains doubtful. Piotr Zielinski emerges as the leading candidate to start in midfield, potentially making his first derby appearance.
Milan’s Derby Dominance Continues Under New Management
Massimiliano Allegri brings extensive experience to his first Derby della Madonnina as Milan coach. His historical record against Inter shows remarkable success, losing only three league games to the Nerazzurri over the past decade. Allegri’s tactical acumen in big matches contrasts sharply with Chivu’s struggles against top opposition this season. The veteran coach won both derby encounters during his first season managing Milan, including a masterclass performance that sealed the Scudetto.
Milan’s recent derby record provides genuine cause for optimism heading into Sunday’s encounter. The Rossoneri remained unbeaten across five meetings with Inter last season, recording three victories and two draws. Matteo Gabbia’s late header, Tammy Abraham’s comeback goal, and Luka Jovic’s decisive brace all contributed to Milan’s psychological advantage. This dominance prevented Inter from achieving a potential domestic treble.
Rafael Leao has now appeared in 20 derbies, surpassing even Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s 16 appearances in this fixture. Luka Modric brings 38 El Clásico appearances and 40 Madrid derby experiences to the midfield battle. Adrien Rabiot contributes 13 Derby d’Italia features and 14 Le Classique appearances, though both players face fitness concerns. Young defender Davide Bartesaghi represents the future, facing his biggest test against Denzel Dumfries if selected.
Milan’s injury concerns center around Christian Pulisic and Adrien Rabiot, both pushing for returns from recent setbacks. Mike Maignan, Matteo Gabbia, and Samuele Ricci have returned to training and should be available for selection. Santiago Gimenez remains doubtful with an ankle problem, potentially limiting Allegri’s attacking options.
Inter Milan Prediction: Free Expert Serie A Betting Pick
The predicted 3-5-2 formations for both teams suggest a midfield battle will determine the outcome. Inter’s combination of Zielinski and Barella faces Milan’s experienced duo of Modric and Fofana in the center. The wing-back positions become crucial, with Dimarco’s attacking threat countered by Saelemaekers’ defensive work rate. Both teams prioritize defensive stability while seeking to exploit transitions and set-piece opportunities.
Historical trends strongly favor backing the underdog in high-stakes derby matches, particularly when recent head-to-head records support that narrative. Milan’s psychological edge from last season’s dominance cannot be understated in a fixture where mentality often trumps form. Allegri’s experience in these pressure situations provides a tactical advantage over Chivu’s relative inexperience in matches of this magnitude. The combination of derby expertise, recent success, and underdog value creates a compelling betting opportunity.
Take AC Milan +0.5 at -105 for Sunday’s Derby della Madonnina. Milan’s unbeaten derby streak, Allegri’s big-game pedigree, and Inter’s injury concerns justify backing the visitors.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
Top Sportsbooks for Serie A Betting
Explore some of the best offshore sportsbooks below. Each website is reviewed by My Top Sportsbooks for user experience, customer service, new member promos, and more.
Sports Betting Sites 