Uruguay vs Brazil: Neither Side to Separate Themselves

Uruguay and Brazil meet in a barnburner of a quarter-final match at the Copa America this year. Having finished second in their group, La Selecao drew the short straw and must face a tough test early if they are to advance further in this continental tournament. Uruguay won all of their group matches, conceding just once in those 3 fixtures. Continue reading to access an expert Uruguay vs Brazil prediction and explore tips and stats for Copa America betting in 2024.

  • Uruguay vs Brazil
  • UEFA EURO 2024, Quarter-final
  • Saturday, July 6, 2024
  • 9 PM EST
  • Allegiant Stadium
  • Paradise, Nevada
  • FOX

Uruguay vs Brazil Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?

Despite being the lowered seed, Brazil are favorites to win and advance to the semifinals against Uruguay on Saturday night. The 5-time World Cup champions are (+165) to win in regulation time. Uruguay are not far behind at (+190), while a draw is available at a market-best (+230) at Bovada.

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Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about Copa America 2024 betting odds.

Brazil Dealing with Tactical Clash

The tactical talking point with La Selecao has represented the growing divide between South American soccer and European soccer. European soccer has been dominated by positionism, a style identified by stricter limits where players must not stray far from their designated areas. It allows for greater control from a manager, but less creativity from the players. Many of the Brazilians play on club teams with positionist styles.

Dorival Junior, however, favors a relationist style of play, which supports player autonomy and self-regulation. This has caused friction on the pitch for Brazil, who struggle to adapt to the new system with just a week of training. While their defense has held up very well, it is in the opponent’s final third where the tactical clash begins to rear its ugly head. 

Their shocking draws against the United States (in a pre-tournament friendly) and Costa Rica drew ire from many Brazilians, most notably the iconic Ronaldinho. The former player lamented about a lack of “drive” and “joy” in the team. His criticisms about La Selecao are likely less to do with poor player effort, but instead this relationist mindset they are not adjusting to well.

Brazil will also be without Vinicius Junior, the electric winger who continues to make careless mistakes that cost him playing time. This time around, it was a swinging right arm that conveniently collided with a Colombian player’s face. The referee deemed the fault worthy of caution, which marked Vini’s second booking in three games. As such, he will be suspended for this match against Uruguay.

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Uruguay Underlooked at Copa America?

With a small population of just 3.4 million, Uruguay has well-outdone their stature in the soccer world. 15-time winners of the Copa America, Uruguay is tied with Argentina as the most decorated country in the continent. They also have won two World Cups in their history, once as hosts in the first-ever World Cup in 1930 and again in 1950.

La Celeste are now ranked 14th in the world by FIFA, but those rankings are notoriously late to reflect recent events. In the case of Uruguay, they have rebranded under the tutelage of Argentinian manager Marcelo Bielsa. Bielsa prefers a much more aggressive look from his team, which includes heavy pressing. This style is in stark contrast to Uruguay’s previous squads under Marcelo Broli, who were much more slow and passive.

Can Uruguay surprise at this Copa America? To exceed expectations, they will probably have to reach the final and make a good show of themselves. That will require advancing past Brazil and then likely Colombia, setting up a potential showdown with neighbors Argentina in the final at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

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Uruguay vs Brazil Prediction and Free Copa America Betting Pick

It is hard for me to pick a side in this match. Brazil has not looked like a title-winning side, but the underlying metrics indicate they have been undervalued by the markets. Uruguay is full of confidence after a dominant group stage and their main striker, Darwin Nunez, has scored 10 times in his last 8 international caps. Brazil will be without Vini, and Uruguay likely without Maximilian Araujo due to injury.

So as I so often recommend in the knockout stages of international tournaments, I will look towards the moneyline market for a draw. Bovada is offering a great line of (+230), which I believe is unlikely to hold by kickoff. Draws are very common in this cagey, low-scoring affairs, let alone given the situation. Both sides will likely fancy their chances in penalties, so if it remains tied late I wouldn’t expect either to make a bold push to win.

I think there is plenty of value on this line and can be bet up to (+190). I would say draw should be priced around (+150) for an implied probability of 40%. As a result, I will be going with a full unit here.

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Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.

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