Stefanos Tsitsipas is the top ranked player in the ATP Rotterdam tour event this week, but is not the betting favorite and that could make him the value pick to win the tournament.
Who do Bettors Favor?
Checking out the best-rated online sportsbooks we can see that bettors have made Daniil Medvedev the favorite to win in Rotterdam, for which he is rated at around +300. Stefanos Tsitsipas is regarded as his nearest challenger at +475, with Andrey Rublev the third favorite at +850.
|ATP Rotterdam Winner|
ATP Rotterdam 2023 Betting Briefing
ATP Rotterdam’s entry list is always impressive, and this year is no exception. The eight seeds in this year’s event are all ranked among the top 16 in the world, including five from the top ten on the ATP rankings. Not surprisingly, given the high profile of this tournament, seeds have a great record here, with 12 from the last 14 tournaments being won by a seed, and 11 of those winners came from the top four.
The tournament is played on indoor hard courts at the Ahoy Arena, Rotterdam, and the Proflex courts have been notably slower than you would expect for this type of surface, which makes for a highly competitive tournament.
Felix Auger Aliassime is the reigning champion here, but this is an event that has proved to be tough to defend in recent years. Gael Monfils and Roger Federer are the only two men to have done so in the last ten years and there have only been four back-to-back champions this century.
ATP Rotterdam Futures Betting
Daniil Medvedev goes into this event as the favorite, but he is arguably not even the best Russian in this event and certainly doesn’t rate as a value bet at his current odds. Andrey Rublev makes more appeal as the second seed and it is worth remembering that he won here in 2021, but like his compatriot, he looks too short a price given the depth of competition in this field.
The top seed in the tournament, Stefanos Tsitsipas, is only second favorite in the futures betting markets and he could offer some value here, despite having what appears to be a tough draw.
Sure, Jannik Sinner in the second round would be a danger, but the Italian has had little time to recover from his Montpellier win at the weekend, while Tsitsipas had a week off, and the Greek star also has a strong head-to-head record in this matchup. His runner-up spot at the Australian Open is a pretty strong indication of his current form and he offers value in this market.
When the level of competition is this high, we can’t really say anyone has an easy draw, but the seed with the ‘best’ draw is probably Holger Rune. Alexander Zverev is the closest seed to him in the draw, but Zverev is currently recovering from a severe ankle injury he suffered in the French Open quarterfinals against Rafael Nadal, and the unseeded competitors in this part of the draw are not that dangerous.
It should also be emphasised that indoor hard surfaces fit the game of the 19-year-old Dane, who won the Paris Masters in the autumn by defeating Novak Djokovic in the final.
ATP Rotterdam Underdog Pick
At bigger odds, it could pay to take a chance on relative underdog Hubert Hurkacz, who is in Rublev’s quarter of the draw. He played well in Australia, where he got as far as the fourth round, beating Denis Shapovalov, before losing out on a tie break in the final set against Sebastian Korda.
His ability to play on pretty much any surface always makes him an interesting contender, and although he has lost three out of five on this type of indoor hard court, it is worth noting that two of those defeats came against Tsitsipas, one of the rising stars of the ATP Tour.
Hurkacz starts the tournament taking on Roberto Bautista Agut, who was defeated in straight sets by Arthur Fils in his first game in Montpellier last week. Assuming that he can get past that obstacle, he will then face either Grigor Dimitrov or one of the qualifiers in the next round.
Looking beyond that, he has encouraging head to head records against potential opponents in the later stages of the tournament. He is level with Rublev – his possible quarter-final opponent – and he has a 3-2 advantage over Medvedev, winning their last two encounters in straight sets. His 1-2 record against Felix Auger Aliassime is less impressive, but he did win the last match against the Canadian, without dropping a single service game. At his current odds, Hurkacz looks worth a bet.