Men’s US Open has Usual Favorites; Where’s the Value?

While Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal duke it out for the No. 1 ranking, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic are just looking to salvage something from a disastrous season. With Wimbledon now a few days behind us, it’s time to preview the last Grand Slam of the year.

The US Open (August 28th – September 10th) is a chance for Murray and Djokovic to stage a comeback. It’s also a chance for Federer to claim his third Grand Slam of the year, and an opportunity for Nadal to pinch the No. 1 spot.

Here’s an early look at the favorites.


Roger Federer: 3/1

After his Wimbledon win, how could Federer be anything but the favorite?

The 19-time Grand Slam champ picked up his second title of the year in spectacular fashion, making his way through the All England Club without dropping a single set. After an injury-riddled 2016, Federer is right back where he belongs.

His Wimbledon finals match against Marin Čilić was one of the most masterful displays we’ve seen from him. It’s clear the old Federer is back and here to stay.

Rafael Nadal: 4/1

Nadal currently leads the ATP points race, and a decent result at the US Open could send him into the No. 1 spot. Like Federer, he’s back in form and it looks like the top spot at the end of the year will come down to the two of them. 

So far he’s already won the Monte-Carlo Masters, Barcelona Open, Madrid Open, and of course, the French Open.


Novak Djokovic just can’t seem to catch a break this year. After an impressive performance in the early rounds of Wimbledon, the former No. 1 was forced to retire against Tomas Berdych in the second set of the quarter-final.

He’s struggled with form all year, and aside from a win at the season opening Qatar Open, he doesn’t have much to show for in 2017. Still, as a 12-time Grand Slam winner and recent No. 1-ranked player, he’s among the favorites for the US Open.

Andy Murray: 11/2

Like Djokovic, Murray is having a dismal season. After finally clinching the No. 1 rank last season, he’s done little to retain the top spot. The Dubai Championships remains his sole win of the year. He’s still the top-ranked player for now, but it’s only a matter of time until he loses it to someone else.

Stan Wawrinka: 14/1

Last year’s champ, Stan Wawrinka, is among the favorites for this year’s US Open. But as usual, he falls behind the Big Four. Wawrinka has had some decent results this year, but his head-to-head record against Federer and Nadal isn’t so good.

Pick: Roger Federer

While 11/2 odds is usually great odds for Murray and Djokovic, it doesn’t seem like either will break from their slump anytime soon. At 14/1, there’s a lot to be gained from picking Wawrinka, but his track record against the Big Four is concerning.

That leaves either Federer or Nadal. Nadal is on fire at the moment and currently leads the Men’s Race Rankings, but Federer is looking particularly good this year as well. He’s opted to play fewer competitions, but has done extraordinarily well in the events he has entered.

At the start of the year, no one would have picked Federer to win three Grand Slams. But now, it seems very possible.

Eaton Thatcher

Eaton used to write for MTS predominantly about boxing but also about soccer, football, tennis and basketball.

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