Carlos Alcaraz triumphed in Indian Wells last week and despite a quick turnaround, he looks like the best pick to win the Miami Open and become the eighth man to claim the Sunshine Double.
Who do Bettors Favor?
Checking out the best-rated online sportsbooks, we can see that the absence of Novak Djokovic has resulted in a far more open betting market than we’d usually see on the ATP Tour. Bettors make Carlos Alcaraz the slight favorite at +175 ahead of Daniil Medvedev at +275, and these two are some way clear of the rest. Jannik Sinner is out on his own as the third favorite at +1200, ahead of the chasing pack.
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Miami Open 2023 Betting Briefing
The Miami Open represents the second leg of the Sunshine Double, a pair of Masters 1000 events that feature both ATP and WTA competitions. Like the other leg of the Double, Indian Wells, it is considered to be among the most important events in tennis, second only to the four Grand Slam competitions.
First held back in 1985, it has been staged at several venues, but has always been located in the Miami area of Florida. The last time it was moved was in 2019, when the switch was made from the tournament’s home at Key Biscayne, where it had been since 1987, to Miami Gardens, Florida and the Hard Rock Stadium, which is also the home of the Miami Dolphins. The surface used in the event is the e Laykold Cushion Plush outdoor hardcourt, categorised as medium-slow by the ITF.
For much of its history, the ATP Miami Open matches were played on a best-of-five basis, but that was changed in 2007 to take the pressure off players who were asked to play two Grand-Slam-length tournaments back-to-back. Novak Djokovic and Andre Agassi are the joint record holders for this event, with six titles apiece, although Djokovic’s last win came in 2016.
ATP Miami Open Betting Favorite
Seven men have completed the famous Sunshine Double by winning Indian Wells and the Miami Open in the same year. Novak Djokovic has done it a remarkable four times, and although Carlos Alcaraz is not yet in the same category as Djokovic as a player, he certainly has the potential.
Winning at Indian Wells on Sunday and then traveling across the US to compete in Miami on Wednesday is a tough challenge for any player, however. The question for bettors to answer is whether the odds currently available on the Spanish star represent value.
You may be reluctant to wager on Alcaraz given his exertions at Indian Wells last week, but it is worth remembering that last year, he reached the semi-final of Indian Wells, losing out to Rafael Nadal and went on to win in Miami. If you think he is a potential Djokovic, Nadal or Federer, then the odds available currently may be slightly generous.
ATP Miami Open Contenders
Daniil Medvedev heads the rest of the main contenders in Miami. He was beaten by Alcaraz at Indian Wells, however, and doesn’t have a great record here. Stefanos Tsitsipas was struggling with a shoulder problem last week and could be a risk at a shortish price, while Felix Auger-Aliassime has not made much of an impression in this event previously.
Jannik Sinner, Casper Ruud, Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev are all ranked in the top nine of the betting and find themselves in the same quarter of the draw here, which could count against them. Zverev’s record in Miami is not bad, but it doesn’t stand out, while Rublev missed Indian Wells and is not the most reliable betting prospect, even at decent odds.
Ruud reached the final last year but still needs to improve to be a consistent threat at this level, so Sinner could be the best option. In two appearances at Miami, he has made the final and retired in the quarter-final, and having reached the last four in Indian Wells, he is in good form.
ATP Miami Open Outsider
It seems strange that a recent winner of this event should be considered a Miami Open outsider, but that is where Hubert Hurkacz finds himself going into a tournament that he won in 2021. His recent record in this event includes last eight victories over Sinner and Medvedev and the narrowest of defeats to Alcaraz in the semi-final last year.
Admittedly, the Polish star had a poor time of it at Indian Wells last week, but has reached a final and a quarter-final this season, which suggests he has retained his form, and given his record in this event, it is worth taking a chance on him to show his best tennis at big odds.