Matteo Berrettini reached the final at Wimbledon on his last appearance and he looks a good value pick in the Wimbledon Futures betting markets.
Who do Bettors Favor?
Looking at the early futures betting markets at the best-rated online sportsbooks for Grand Slam tennis, we can see that there is an unsurprising favorite in the shape of Novak Djokovic. The dominant Serbian star is rated as a +120 favorite by bettors to win Wimbledon and is a long way clear of Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Berrettini. Bookmakers appear divided on the chances of Daniil Medvedev who is available at anything between +800 and +1200, and Rafael Nadal is another contender that is proving hard for sportsbooks to nail down, being currently available at +700 and +2200.
|Wimbledon Men's Singles Winner|
Wimbledon 2023 Betting Briefing
Wimbledon has the distinction of being the oldest tennis tournament in the world and the one that most of the top players want to win above all others.
Achieving success on the grass courts of SW19 is a tough challenge, however. For one thing, it comes just 4-5 weeks after the French Open, and players who make it to the latter stages at Roland Garros face a difficult task both in attempting to recover from their clay exertions and in getting into the swing of grass court tennis, which is a very different kind of tennis.
The Wimbledon courts are not as fast as they used to be, but these are still the fastest courts that players will face in any of the Grand Slam events. Fast servers can do well there, but the outdoor conditions also put a premium on accuracy, so highly skilled all-court players, who can hit their shots with precision usually fare better than aggressive baseliners.
Can Anyone Stop Djokovic?
Novak Djokovic has taken up the mantle of Roger Federer in becoming the dominant Wimbledon player and is now just one Wimbledon victory behind Federer, on seven: a figure that also puts him level with another Wimbledon great in Pete Sampras.
Djokovic has won the last four editions of Wimbledon and his 90% match win rate on these courts is only slightly behind his success rate at the Australian Open. He is also level with Rafael Nadal on 22 Grand Slam wins and shows no sign of slowing down any time soon. Can anyone stop him?
There are some talented young players coming through and any sign of weakness on Djokovic’s part would be pounced on. Yet he remains the top Wimbledon player. I couldn’t really argue with anyone who wanted to bet on him winning Wimbledon even at his current short price, but futures market betting is all about looking for picks at bigger odds, and Djokovic doesn’t fit into that category.
Wimbledon Futures Contenders
Grass court tennis is a very different animal to other forms of the game, and although the list of potential futures contenders looks competitive, many of those listed simply aren’t at their best on the surface, and that surely will make it hard for them to compete with Djokovic.
Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev between them have not been past the fourth round at Wimbledon once, while Stefanos Tsitsipas has a terrible 50% win record at the tournament. Jannik Sinner has the game and the potential to succeed at Wimbledon, but futures bettors may want to see a little more from him before trusting him in this market.
Instead, it could pay to focus on the last two beaten finalists: Matteo Berrettini and Nick Kyrgios. Berrettini is an all-court player with exactly the right type of game to succeed. He reached the final in 2021 but missed out due to COVID-19 last year. And the 2022 finalist Kyrgios is another possibility. There is a big risk factor, given his unpredictability but grass is clearly his surface and he surely has a Grand Slam win in him at some point in his career.
Don’t Rule Out Nadal
When it comes to Rafael Nadal, it is obvious that his horrendous injury problems and the fact that he will more likely be prioritizing the French Open than Wimbledon make him a huge risk here. He certainly isn’t a betting proposition at odds of +800. But what about +2200?
There is a price at which any player can become a value selection and with so much tennis to be played, +2200 looks huge for a player who leads Djokovic 11-7 in Grand Slam meetings. Let’s say Nadal makes it to Wimbledon in reasonable shape. Would he be +2200 in the Tournament Winners’ market the week before the competition? The risks involved are obviously significant, but so is the price.