Novak Djokovic was back to his best at the Australian Open and will be aiming to complete a calendar Grand Slam this year, but the value lies in picking him to win just one more Slam event in 2023.
Who do Bettors Favor?
According to the best-rated online sportsbooks bettors favor Novak Djokovic to finish the 2023 season with two Grand Slam wins under his belt. This outcome is rated as a +120 chance, while the odds on a Three-Quarter slam are +225 and the Calendar Grand Slam is at +1000. Alternatively, if you think Djokovic has won his last Grand Slam event of 2023, you can back that option at +275.
|Djokovic Grand Slam Wins in 2023|
Grand Slam 2023 Betting Briefing
Both the ATP and WTA Tours are packed with tournaments, but the Grand Slam events are the pinnacle of the sport, and these are the focus of most betting interest throughout the year, which means bookmakers are inclined to provide plenty of Grand Slam special betting markets.
Two of the most interesting Grand Slam markets involve predicting how many Grand Slam wins a player will earn during the season and how many finals they will reach.
It’s worth noting that there is a significant difference between the ATP and the WTA when it comes to Grand Slams. The last 40 ATP Grand Slams have been won by only eight players, while Aryna Sabalenka’s Australian Open victory made her the 21st woman to win one of the last 40.
Men’s Grand Slam Wins Betting
Winning multiple Grand Slams in the same year has been one of the ultimate challenges for tennis players and only three women and two men have ever achieved this. Don Budge (1938), Rod Laver (1962 and 1969), Maureen Connolly (1953), Margaret Court (1970) and Steffi Graf (1988).
Winning three out of four Grand Slams, however, is more common and there have been 19 instances of a player winning the ‘Three Quarter Grand Slam’.
Novak Djokovic was the last player to do so, in 2021, winning the Australian Open, the French Open and Wimbledon before losing to Daniil Medvedev in the US Open final. If you think he go one better this year, you can bet on that eventuality at +1000 but even assuming Djokovic will continue to win Grand Slams at his current career rate suggests the price on that should be more like +3500. In fact, the best value option in the Djokovic market is for the Serb superstar to finish with just one more Grand Slam win in 2023.
The other options in these markets are harder to weigh up. Alexander Zverev, Jannik Sinner and Casper Ruud have not won a Grand Slam yet, and although Sinner and Ruud clearly have enormous potential, they may have to wait another season or two for that first win. Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz have won Grand Slam titles, but their odds on winning one, two or three of the remaining Grand Slam events this year are too short.
In fact, the best option here could be to go against the grain. Alcaraz obviously has enormous potential, but has been having injury problems over the last few months, and based on what he has achieved so far, the market appears to be slightly overestimating his chances. It could be worth wagering on the reigning US Open champion not winning a Grand Slam event this season.
Women’s Grand Slam Wins Betting
Steffi Graf was the last woman to win a calendar Grand Slam, and Graf also recorded an impressive four Three-Quarter Slams. Monica Seles also achieved this feat, in 1992 and 1993, but Serena Williams was the last woman to do so, in 2002 and in 2015.
Three-time Grand Slam winner Iga Swiatek is the new dominant force in women’s tennis, and after she won both the French Open and US Open last year, she is understandably expected to pick up at least one of the three remaining big events in 2023.
As with Alcaraz, however, Swiatek looks a little overrated in the market. Although she is a young player, she may already have hit her peak, in which case, based on her Grand Slam record to date of three wins from 16 Grand Slam events, there is value to be had in backing her to finish with zero Grand Slams.
Of her rivals, Ons Jabeur has yet to win a Grand Slam event and makes limited appeal despite her strong recent form, but Aryna Sabalenka is a different proposition. She has reached the last four stage of her last eight Grand Slam events, winning the Australian Open last time. With Wimbledon’s fast courts to her advantage, she has an excellent chance of picking up one more Slam event in 2023.