Iga Swiatek is the favorite to win back-to-back Stuttgart Open titles, but Aryna Sabalenka is a better pick for victory and can surprise the world number one.
Who do Bettors Favor?
Checking out the best-rated online sportsbooks it is no surprise to see that Iga Swiatek is once again the favorite with bettors as she returns from injury to defend her title. The world number one is rated as a -120 chance in Stuttgart, while Aryna Sabalenka is considered the second favorite at +500. Elena Rybakina, Ons Jabeur and Barbora Krejcikova are priced at +1200, with Cori Gauff at +1600.
Stuttgart Open Betting Briefing
The clay court season has officially started, with the green clay at Charleston signaling the beginning of this fascinating phase of the WTA Tour, and attention now turns to Stuttgart and the Stuttgart Open.
Like Charleston, this tournament is a little different from the standard clay court experience, as it takes place indoors, at the Porsche Arena, which means that although the standard clay surface skills of sliding and heavy topspin remain important, the courts play a little faster than they would at an outdoor clay event, so players who generally don’t enjoy the clay sometimes find this event more to their liking.
Established in 1978, this is a tournament that traditionally attracts the best players on the WTA Tour and multiple wins in Stuttgart are common: in fact, nine women have won this event on two or more occasions, though most of those players were all-time greats and the record holder is Martina Navratilova, who won at Stuttgart on six occasions.
Stuttgart Open Betting Favorites
Iga Swiatek will once again be a short-priced favorite but once again there are reasons to oppose the world number one on the WTA Tour, even if she eventually turns out to be an all-time great.
This will be her first tournament back after pulling out of Miami and Charleston and no matter how great the player, there is always an element of uncertainty when they come back from injury, and I’m not sure that the uncertainty is fully factored into her price here.
The fact that this is far from a typical clay court tournament also makes things tougher for her, as it doesn’t rule out some of the big guns on the WTA Tour who often struggle on genuine clay surface. In fact, this tournament has been won by the likes of aggressive baseliners Karolina Pliskova, Petra Kvitova and Maria Sharapova in recent years, while Aryna Sabalenka has twice finished as runner-up, and none of that quartet could be described as clay court players.
Still, some tennis bettors may be tempted to go for more established clay courters such as Ons Jabeur, who won last time out in Charleston or Caroline Garcia, and the value among the favorites could be with the big hitters. Aryna Sabalenka is the biggest hitter of them all, and she seems to like this venue so she looks like a solid alternative bet. If you wanted a little extra insurance you could another big hitter in Elena Rybakina, who has been at the top of her form for most of 2023.
Stuttgart Open Betting Contenders
If Swiatek does struggle to return to top form, and bettors overestimate the importance of clay court form this week, there could be opportunities further down the futures betting list and there are some interesting Stuttgart Open contenders at bigger odds.
Paula Badosa is one such option. Although on paper her record this year does not look that impressive, she was unlucky to come up against an in-form Rybakina in Indian Wells and Miami, pushing her close both times, before reaching the quarterfinals at Charleston. Last year she beat Rybakina and Ons Jabeur to reach the Stuttgart semi-finals, where she was eventually knocked out by Sabalenka and with a good draw, she has a great chance of going deep into this tournament.
Another player worth considering here is young Russian star Anastasia Potapova. A rising talent on the WTA Tour, Potapova won her second career title in Linz and broke into the top 25 of the WTA rankings for the first time earlier this year, and she showed huge potential in pushing Jessica Pegula in close-fought battles at Indian Wells and Miami.
Potapova’s power and ability to hit her groundstrokes flat and with topspin, combined with her supreme athleticism, make her a threat on both hard court and clay court. She has yet to show that she can handle the pressure of beating the top players in the biggest games, but she is improving all the time and is worth a bet here at big odds.