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- What: UFC 315 Main Event
- Who: Belal Muhammad Vs. Jack Della Maddalena
- Date: Saturday, May 10, 2025
- Location: Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The next UFC pay-per-view event takes place on May 10 when the promotion returns to Montreal, Quebec, Canada, for the first time in over 10 years for UFC 315. In the main event of the ESPN+ streaming PPV fight card, Belal Muhammad puts his UFC welterweight title on the line against the No. 5 ranked Jack Della Maddalena. Muhammad defends the title he won from Leon Edwards in July 2024. Before we look at the betting breakdown for the UFC 315 main event, here is some information on Muhammad and Della Maddalena.
Belal Muhammad (24-3-1) is riding an 11-fight winning streak heading into UFC 315. Muhammad was booked to face Shavkat Rakhmonov in his first UFC welterweight title defense at UFC 310, but a bone infection prevented him from competing on that card. He makes his return at UFC 315.
Jack Della Maddalena (17-2) is undefeated in the UFC with a 7-0 record. His UFC victories include four knockouts and one submission. Della Maddalena is coming off a March 2024 knockout win over former UFC title challenger Gilbert Burns.
Before we look at the best bets for Belal Muhammad Vs. Jack Della Maddalena on the UFC 315 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC 315 Main Event: Belal Muhammad Vs. Jack Della Maddalena betting picks
| To Win UFC 315 Main Event |  |  |  |
| Belal Muhammad | -250 | -250 | -275 |
| Jack Della Maddelana | +210 | +210 | +206 |
UFC 315 betting breakdown: Belal Muhammad
Belal Muhammad is a pressure fighter who is best known for his wrestling and the pace he can set during a fight. Muhammad, who has an excellent fight IQ, knows what type of game plan will best suit him against a particular opponent. If a fighter he’s matched up against is deficient in their wrestling, Muhammad will avoid striking and look to get the fight to the mat, where he is excellent, especially when it comes to ground control.
Muhammad is a better wrestler than Gilbert Burns, who managed to go seven for 11 takedowns against Della Maddalena.
Muhammad lands 4.39 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 43 percent. His striking defense is 57 percent, and he absorbs 3.48 significant strikes per minute. Muhammad lands 2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes and has an accuracy of 39 percent. His takedown defense is 89 percent.
Muhammad had not attempted a takedown in the two fights heading into his rematch against Edwards. He went nine for 13 in takedowns in that contest, racking up 12:02 in control time.
UFC 315 betting breakdown: Jack Della Maddalena
Jack Della Maddalena is an excellent striker, as evidenced by his 12 knockout wins in 17 career victories. He has a brown belt in jiu-jitsu and a couple of submission wins, so he’s no slouch on the ground. But expect him to do everything he can to keep this fight standing so he can compete to his strengths.
Della Maddalena uses volume and fights behind his jab while moving forward. If the challenger can establish his striking and keep Muhammad at range, he has a chance to pull off the upset.
His takedown defense looked good before he faced Burns, but that defense needs to be looked at a lot more closely heading into this fight.
Della Maddalena is one of the more active strikers in the welterweight division at 6.74 significant strikes landed per minute, with a striking accuracy of 53 percent. His striking defense is 66 percent, and he absorbs 4.27 strikes per minute. Della Maddalena averages 0.21 takedowns per 15 minutes with a success rate of 70 percent. His takedown defense is 70 percent.
Best Bets: UFC 315 Main Event – Belal Muhammad Vs. Jack Della Maddalena
Belal Muhammad’s game plan will be similar to how he handled Leon Edwards. He will look to stay outside range early in the contest and gather information on Jack Della Maddalena’s movements and tendencies. Once he gets a read on his foe, Muhammad will pick up his wrestling attacks and look to get the fight to the mat and keep it there. Della Maddalena has a punchers chance to pull off the upset, but it’s a slim chance.
The betting pick is that Belal Muhammad will retain the UFC welterweight title at UFC 315, beating Jack Della Maddalena via decision. For those who favor the challenger or are looking for a value bet, pick Della Maddalena by knockout.
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