Best UFC 317 Betting Picks: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano

  • What: UFC 317
  • Who: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
  • Date: Saturday, June 28, 2025
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV
  • Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
  • How to Watch:  Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN+), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)

The highlight of the UFC’s 2025 edition of International Fight Week is the UFC 317 pay-per-view card, which takes place on June 28 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. In the main event of UFC 317, Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira battle for the vacant UFC lightweight title. A second title fight serves as the UFC 317 co-main event. In that contest, UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja faces the No. 4 ranked 125-pound contender Kai Kara-France. Before those bouts, No. 9 ranked lightweight Beneil Dariush meets the No. 10 ranked 155-pound contender Renato Moicano.

Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) was on an eight-fight winning streak before losing to Charles Oliveira in June 2023. He followed that with a knockout setback to Arman Tsarukyan in December 2023. Dariush returns to action at UFC 317, looking to avoid the first three-fight losing skid of his career.

Renato Moicano (20-6-1) is coming off a submission loss to then-UFC lightweight champ Islam Makhachev in January. Moicano, who was on a three-fight winning streak, accepted that bout at the last minute, replacing Tsarukyan on weigh-in day.

Before we look at the best bets for Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano on the UFC 317 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find our betting picks for the UFC 317 main event.

UFC 317: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano betting picks

FightersBetOnline Sportsbook ReviewBovada Sportsbook ReviewBetUS Sportsbook ReviewMyBookie Sportsbook Review
Beneil Darisuh+125+122+122+120
Renato Moicano-145-142-145-143

UFC 317: Beneil Dariush betting breakdown

At 36, Beneil Dariush is one of the top lightweight fighters in the UFC. However, the highly-ranked competitor is coming off back-to-back losses that might have cost him his best chance of earning a shot at a UFC title. On the other side of the cage on Saturday, he faces Renato Moicano, who wants to show that his one-sided loss to Islam Makhachev should not keep him from fighting for UFC gold a second time. In short, this is a high-stakes matchup for both men. However, Dariush, who is coming off losses to fighters who are considered among the elite of the division, is under more pressure ahead of UFC 317.

Dariush is one of the top wrestlers in the UFC lightweight division. However, throughout his winning streak, Dariush tended to try to beat opponents where they were at their best. That was a risky proposition for Dariush, and it caught up to him against Oliveira and Tsarukyan. Expect a more conservative approach from the UFC veteran, he joined the promotion in 2014, at UFC 317. That means getting back to his wrestling. In his 2021 wins over Tony Ferguson and Diego Ferreira, Dariush went eight for 21 in takedowns while earning 19:38 of control time in 30 minutes of fight time. 

Dariush lands an average of 3.78 significant strikes per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 48 percent. His striking defense is 57 percent, and he absorbs 2.65 strikes per minute. Dariush averages 1.90 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 34 percent, and his takedown defense is 80 percent.

Beneil Dariush TO BEAT RENATO MOICANO
★★★★★
+125
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UFC 317: Renato Moicano betting breakdown

Renato Moicano fought three times in 2022. He missed all of 2023 due to injury. The Brazilian competitor followed that with three fights in 2024. He went 5-1 during that stretch. In January, Moicano agreed to fight Islam Makhachev for the UFC lightweight title on weigh-in day. Makhachev won that fight with ease, submitting Moicano in the first round. 

Moicano is best known for his submission skills. The Brazilian has 10 career submission wins and eight decision victories in his MMA career. Moicano has picked up six of those submission victories under the UFC banner. Along with his grappling skills, Moicano is a solid technical striker who can set and sustain a good pace throughout his fights. He also throws his strikes in volume, works well behind his jab, and is impressive in controlling the range where his fights take place. The majority of Moicano’s strikes target the head. In his five-round contests against former UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos, 87 percent of Moicano’s significant strikes targeted his foe’s head. That number increased to 88 percent in his knockout win over Jalin Turner. In his most recent win, a TKO of Benoit Saint Denis, 92 percent of his strikes were to the head.

If there is a knock against Moicano, it’s that his chin doesn’t always hold up when he gets tagged. That’s not great for a fighter who lands 4.36 significant strikes per minute while getting hit at a rate of 3.55 times per 60 seconds. Three of Moicano’s losses have come via knockout. All those defeats have come while he has been a member of the UFC roster. Moicano’s striking accuracy is 48 percent, and his striking defense is 60 percent. He lands 1.82 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a takedown accuracy of 44 percent. His takedown defense is 71 percent.

Renato Moicano TO BEAT BENEIL DARIUSH
★★★★★
-142
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Best Bets: UFC 317 – Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano

One thing unrelated to the in-cage UFC 317 matchup between Beneil Dariush and Renato Moicano is the fact that Moicano has become incredibly busy over the past year or so as his popularity has risen, which leads one to wonder how much time and focus he has put into this fight against an always dangerous Dariush.

Look for Dariush to be better prepared and more focused in Vegas.

The betting pick is for Beneil Dariush to beat Renato Moicano by decision at UFC 317.

Beneil Dariush TO BEAT RENATO MOICANO
★★★★★
+122
Bet now

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Trent Reinsmith

Trent is a professional sports journalist specializing in UFC, MMA, and esports coverage. His work has been featured in prestigious publications such as USA Today Sports, Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively. Trent's connection to MMA dates back to the early days when he and his friends pooled their resources to purchase the pay-per-...

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