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- What: UFC Kansas City Main Event
- Who: Ian Machado Garry Vs. Carlos Prates
- Date: Saturday, April 26, 2025
- Location: T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, MO
- Time: Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Main Card (8:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: ESPN2
The UFC is on a short break following the UFC 314 pay-per-view card. At that event, Alexander Volkanovski won the vacant UFC featherweight title via decision over Diego Lopes. The next UFC fight card takes place on Saturday, April 26, in Kansas City, MO. That UFC Fight Night event is headlined by a welterweight matchup between Ian Machado Garry and Carlos Prates. Garry enters the fight card as the No. 7 ranked UFC 170-pounder, while Prates checks in at No. 13 in the UFC welterweight rankings. Here is some background on Garry and Prates before we look at the betting breakdown for the UFC Kansas City Fight Night event.
Ian Machado Garry (15-1) is coming off the first loss of his MMA career, a decision setback to Shavkat Rakhmonov in a UFC title eliminator in December. The former Cage Warriors champ was 8-0 in the UFC before that setback.
Carlos Prates (21-6) is four fights into his UFC run. He is 4-0 in those outings with four knockout wins. Prates is unbeaten in his past 11 fights, and is on a run of 10 consecutive knockout wins. He is coming off a November KO victory over UFC veteran Neil Magny.
Before we look at the best bets for Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates on the UFC Kansas City card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC Kansas City main event: Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| Ian Machado Garry | -120 | -115 | -115 | -125 |
| Carlos Prates | +100 | -105 | -105 | -102 |
UFC Kansas City main event: Ian Machado Garry betting breakdown
Ian Machado Garry is a fighter the UFC hopes will be their next big Irish star. The young and confident fighter has looked better in each of his UFC outings, but questions remain on just how high his upside is in the UFC’s 170-pound division. His past three fights answered some of those questions but also left others unanswered. While he suffered a loss against the highly touted Rakhmonov, Garry has the opportunity to deliver a bounce-back performance against the surging Prates.
Garry is not averse to putting himself in difficult fights. He was booked to face Joaquin Buckley on December 14 but agreed to step in to fight the more dangerous Rakhmonov in the hope that a win will put him in a UFC welterweight title fight. Like that fight, Garry accepted the Prates matchup on short notice.
Garry is a good striker. He usually has a very high output and decent accuracy, but he struggled on the feet against Michael Page and had to resort to takedowns and ground control to win that fight. The one thing that stands out about Garry is that he carries his chin very high, which makes him hittable. That’s a dangerous style to employ against a powerful and accurate striker like Prates
Garry lands 4.72 significant strikes per minute. His striking percentage is 54 percent. As for defense, Garry gets hit an average of 2.82 times per minute and defends 51 percent of his opponent’s attempted strikes. He averages 0.74 takedowns per minute with a 54 percent takedown accuracy. His takedown defense is 69 percent.
UFC Kansas City main event: Carlos Prates betting breakdown
Neil Magny was supposed to be a test for Carlos Prates. Prates looked very good as a member of the UFC roster heading into that scrap, but he only had three fights with the promotion, all of which had been in 2024. Prates passed that test, knocking out Magny in the first round for his fourth “Performance of the Night” bonus in four UFC fights. He competes for the first time since that win in Kansas City. Prates was booked to face Geoff Neal at UFC 314, but he was shifted to this card as the headliner after Neal dropped off the UFC 314 event.
Prates is a powerful striker with good movement and footwork who will mix up his targets and techniques. His kicking game is above average, and he has a penchant for throwing head kicks whenever he has the time and space to do so. In addition to his power, Prates is an accurate striker. In his recent win over Li Jingliang, Prates connected on 65 percent of his attempted significant strikes while focusing on the head and legs of his foe. Prates won that bout and became the first man to ever score a knockout over Jingliang. It was his ninth straight knockout victory. His run of knockout wins now stands at 10 straight.
Prates lands 4.39 significant strikes per minute with a 57 percent accuracy. He does get hit a lot, averaging 4.60 strikes absorbed per minute with a defense of 48 percent. Not known for his takedowns, he has one in his UFC career, Prates has a takedown defense of 91 percent.
Best Bets: UFC Kansas City main event – Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates
Both these fighters are good strikers. However, while Garry is the better technical striker, Prates is the more powerful of the two. When one couples that power with Garry’s defensive liabilities, things start to lean in the direction of the Brazilian.
The betting pick is for Carlos Prates to beat Ian Machado Garry by knockout in the main event of UFC Kansas City. There is betting value in picking Garry to win via decision if one favors Garry.
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