Trent Reinsmith
- Date & Location: Saturday, September 3 @ Accor Arena in Paris, France
- Time: Prelims (12 p.m. ET), Main Card (3 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: ESPN+
The UFC’s first visit to France takes place on Saturday, September 3, when the promotion visits Paris for UFC Fight Night 209. In the main event, former interim UFC heavyweight champion Ciryl Gane, who hails from France, faces Australian slugger Tai Tuivasa. Here is some background on the event’s headliners before we discuss, in detail, the UFC Paris betting breakdown.
Gane is the No. 1 fighter in the official UFC heavyweight rankings. The 32-year-old French fighter brings a 10-1 record with him into the UFC Paris card. Gane is coming off the first loss of his professional career. He dropped a decision to Francis Ngannou in January at UFC 270 in a UFC heavyweight title unification bout.
The 29-year-old Tuivasa is 14-3. He is riding a five-fight winning streak with finishes in each of those bouts. Tuivasa, who checks in at No. 3 in the official UFC heavyweight rankings, earned “Performance of the Night” bonuses in his past three outings. Tuivasa’s most recent win was a February knockout of former UFC heavyweight title challenger Derrick Lewis.
Before we look at the bout between Ciryl Gane and Tai Tuivasa on the UFC Paris fight card, which streams on ESPN+, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC Paris Picks: Ciryl Gane vs. Tai Tuivasa
| Fighters |  |  |  |
| Ciryl Gane | -550 | -575 | -540 |
| Tai Tuivasa | +385 | +395 | +415 |
Ciryl Gane vs. Tai Tuivasa breakdown and analysis
This matchup presents an interesting clash of styles. Gane is a cerebral and patient fighter. His approach to the game is to take what his opponent gives him and then use his technical skills to break down his opponent. He doesn’t willingly place himself in danger, and he doesn’t pursue high-risk options. While he has the power to score a knockout and the skills to secure a submission, Game is happy to stay away from damage and frustrate his opponent into presenting small openings he can exploit.
Tuivasa is the exact opposite of Gane. There is no patience in his game plan. There is no waiting. Tuivasa’s approach to fighting is to get in, attack, get the knockout and get out. Of his 14 career victories, 13 have come by way of knockout. He has only seen the third round twice in his career. Tuivasa willingly puts himself in risky spots in the hope that his chin will stand up and that his power will end the night of his opponent.
Pick: Ciryl Gane to defeat Tai Tuivasa.
Who has the edge
Gane is the more skilled fighter and has the better all-around game. However, Tuivasa’s power and his willingness to engage any fighter on any terms make him an incredibly dangerous foe.
Gane’s ability to slow fights down and keep them at the range he wants to fight at will make things difficult for Tuivasa, who is shorter, at a reach deficit, and less athletic than his opponent in this matchup.
Prediction: Ciryl Gane to beat Tai Tuivasa by knockout.
Best UFC Paris bets
There’s a lot to consider in this matchup, and a lot of the UFC Paris bets come down to gut feeling. If you feel Tuivasa’s brawling style can break through the defense of the more technical Gane, then a bet for Tuivasa to win via knockout is not out of line. There’s also the chance that this matchup becomes a boring bout where Gane just keeps Tuivasa at distance for five rounds and picks him apart with jabs and kicks.
My gut tells me that Tuivasa will do his best to land big power punches but that Gane’s defense will frustrate and tire him out to the point where it becomes easy for Gane to hit with powerful counters and that Gane will end the fight in the third round or later via knockout.
UFC Paris Picks: Ciryl Gane to defeat Tai Tuivasa via knockout in the third round or later.
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