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- What: UFC 316 Main Event
- Who: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2
- Date: Saturday, June 7, 2025
- Location: Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The next UFC pay-per-view fight card on the schedule is UFC 316, which takes place on Saturday, June 7, from Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The main event of the ESPN+ streaming PPV card is a rematch between current UFC bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili and the man he took the title from, Sean O’Malley. We look at the betting odds, picks, and predictions for the UFC 316 main event.
Merab Dvalishvili (19-4) took the UFC 135 title from O’Malley via unanimous decision at UFC 306 in September 2024. He has defended the belt once, beating Umar Nurmagomedov by decision at UFC 311. Dvalishvili is on a 12-fight winning streak heading into UFC 316.
Sean O’Malley (18-2-0-1) was unbeaten in seven UFC fights heading into his second attempted UFC bantamweight title defense at UFC 306. Dvalishvili ended that run with a unanimous decision win over O’Malley. The former champ has not fought since that setback.
Before we look at the best bets for Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2 on the UFC 316 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC 316 Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2 betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |
| Sean O'Malley | +225 | +230 | +216 |
| Merab Dvalishvili | -265 | -280 | -290 |
UFC 316 Main Event betting breakdown: Merab Dvalishvili
Merab Dvalishvili might have the best cardio in the UFC. He is the best-conditioned athlete in the UFC’s bantamweight division. Dvalishvili sets a relentless pace, using non-stop chain wrestling to wear out his opponents and get them to the mat. He is like a wet blanket, sticking to his opponent’s back and never giving up control. How good is Dvalishvili’s wrestling? He scored five takedowns on 11 attempts against former UFC champ Henry Cejudo, an Olympic gold medal winner in wrestling, while racking up more than four minutes of control time in their three-round contest. He followed that with six takedowns and 10:03 of control time against O’Malley. Against Nurmagomedov, the champ shot 30 takedowns.
On the feet, Dvalishvili has decent striking, with reasonably high output, but his striking is mainly to serve his wrestling. Of his 12 UFC wins, 11 have come by way of decision. In short, Dvalishvili is a grinder. Dvalishvili is also active in his striking on the mat and in the clinch. He only lands a few significant strikes in those positions, but his high output is meant to keep his opponent under control and negate their offense.
Dvalishvili has an 11-fight UFC winning streak at bantamweight, which is the longest winning streak in the division’s history. He is also first all-time in the division in control time at 1:16:2702. No one in the division has landed more total strikes than Dvalishvili at 2,092, and no one comes close to his 79 takedowns.
Dvalishvili lands 4.36 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 42 percent. His striking defense is 56 percent, and he gets hit 2.51 times per minute. Dvalishvili lands 5.89 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 35 percent. His takedown defense is 82 percent.
UFC 316 Main Event betting breakdown: Sean O’Malley
Sean O’Malley has accumulated 12 knockout wins in his MMA career. Of those KO victories, six have come since he joined the UFC in 2017. The 30-year-old packs a lot of power into his 5-foot-11-inch frame. Unlike many other power punchers, O’Malley is also an active and accurate striker. The champion throws most of his strikes at the head of his foes, but he isn’t afraid to go to the body if the opportunity is there. He can be flashy sometimes, but his defense, footwork, and movement make him an elusive target for his opponents.
O’Malley is the most accurate striker in the history of the UFC’s bantamweight division, landing 61.5 percent of his significant strike attempts. He’s also third in the division’s history in strikes landed per minute at 6.71 and first in striking differential at plus 3.31.
O’Malley gave up a career high (tie) six takedowns on 15 attempts against Dvalishvili, while spending more than 10 minutes under the control of his opponent in that matchup.
Best Bets: UFC 316 main event: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2
In their first meeting, Sean O’Malley had a decent landing rate against Merab Dvalishvili, connecting on 52 percent of his significant strikes. The problem for O’Malley was that he only attempted 89 significant strikes, far from the 356 he threw in his win against Marlon Vera. If O’Malley can’t establish his rhythm in this rematch, he’ll again be in for a long and frustrating night of defending takedowns and trying to work himself off the mat. Dvalishvili had at least one takedown in each round of their first meeting. Unless O’Malley has been working on nothing but his wrestling defense since the first time these two fought, it’s hard to see this fight ending with a different result.
The betting pick is for Merab Dvalishvili to beat Sean O’Malley via decision in the UFC 316 main event.
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