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- What: UFC Vegas 106 Main Event
- Who: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
- Date: Saturday, May 17, 2025
- Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Prelims (4:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (7:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: ESPN+
The UFC heads back to Las Vegas this week after visiting Montreal, Canada, for the UFC 315 pay-per-view fight card. The next UFC event, UFC Vegas 106, takes place on Saturday, May 17, from the UFC Apex. The main event of the UFC Fight Night card is a welterweight matchup between former title challenger Gilbert Burns and the surging Michael Morales. Burns enters UFC Vegas 106 as the No. 8 fighter in the official UFC welterweight rankings, while Morales enters the contest at No. 12. Below is some information on the UFC Vegas 106 main event fighters before we discuss the betting breakdown for the upcoming UFC event.
Gilbert Burns (22-8) is riding the first losing skid of his career. The 38-year-old has lost his past three fights and is coming off a September 2024 setback to Sean Brady. Before 2023, Burns had never lost back-to-back fights.
Michael Morales (17-0) is looking for the biggest win of his career on Saturday. The 25-year-old is 5-0 in the UFC with three knockout wins. In his most recent scrap, Morales defeated veteran Neil Magny in August, winning a “Performance of the Night” bonus.
Before we look at the best bets for Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales on the UFC Vegas 106 card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC Vegas 106 Main Event: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| Gilbert Burns | +500 | +475 | +475 | +390 |
| Michael Morales | -700 | -700 | -700 | -575 |
UFC Vegas 106 Main Event betting breakdown: Gilbert Burns
The 38-year-old Gilbert Burns has been with the UFC three years longer than Michael Morales has been a professional MMA fighter. With that, he’s accumulated a lot of mileage and wear and tear on his body. On the positive side, Burns has been fighting the best of the best in the UFC for a long time and has a lot more top-level fighting experience than his younger opponent.
Burns began his UFC career as a lightweight but moved up to 170 pounds in 2019. He’s handled himself well at welterweight, but one could argue that he is small for the weight division, and what gets him by is his incredibly well-rounded skill set, his fight IQ, and his toughness. Once known as strictly a grappler, Burns has added tools to his arsenal over the years to become a threat anywhere a fight takes place.
Burns isn’t a significant threat off his back or in the striking department, but where he excels is on the mat when he is in top control. His route to victory in this bout is getting takedowns and controlling things on the ground. What makes that questionable is Burns’ takedown accuracy and Morales’s takedown defense.
Burns averages 3.17 significant strikes landed per minute with an accuracy of 48 percent. He absorbs 3.57 significant strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 52 percent. His takedown accuracy is 37 percent, and he gets 2.10 takedowns per 15 minutes. Burns’ takedown defense is 53 percent.
UFC Vegas 106 Main Event betting breakdown: Michael Morales
This year has not been kind to undefeated UFC prospects. At the most recent UFC Fight Night event, two fighters who entered the Octagon without a blemish on their records left the UFC Apex with a defeat. Those fighters were Daniel Marcos and Bo Nickal. Michael Morales looks to avoid joining that group on Saturday night.
Morales was not ranked before he dispatched Magny in his most recent outings. At UFC Vegas 106, he competes in his first UFC main event and looks to break into the top 10 with a win over another well-respected veteran in Burns.
Morales has a wrestling and muay Thai background. He also has good footwork and solid striking skills to go with his strong offensive and defensive wrestling. His footwork, timing, and movement allow him to move in and out of range easily. In short, at 25, Morales is a well-rounded fighter who is working his way up the UFC 170-pound rankings at a rapid clip.
Morales lands 5.42 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 48 percent. His defensive striking is 52 percent, and he absorbs 3.42 strikes per minute. Morales lands 1.16 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 41 percent. Meanwhile, his takedown defense is an impressive 92 percent.
Best Bets: UFC Vegas 106 Main Event – Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
The UFC has done Gilbert Burns no favors as of late. The promotion has booked the UFC veteran against Jack Della Maddalena, Sean Brady and Michael Morales in his past three fights. Like the Brady and Della Maddalena matchups, it seems as if the UFC is using Burns as a gatekeeper for the next generation of elite 170-pound fighters. Look for Morales to pass that test.
The betting picks is for Michael Morales to beat Gilbert Burns by decision at UFC Vegas 106.
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