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The UFC returns to London this weekend for a Fight Night card featuring Britain’s top undefeated fighter Lerone Murphy. The hometown hero will face fellow undefeated fighter and title contender Movsar Evloev. The event marks the return of the UFC to the country for the first time since Edwards vs Brady on the same weekend last year. Read on to access expert UFC Fight Night predictions and explore stats and tips to improve your UFC fight night bets.
- Ultimate Fighting Championship
- UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy
- The O2 Arena, London, England
- Saturday, March 21, 2026
- Paramount+
UFC Fight Night Predictions: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?
Movsar Evloev is a big favorite to see his hand raised at the end of the night. The Russian from Ingushetia is lined at (-240) across all top online sportsbooks to get the nod. His opponent Lerone Murphy is appropriately priced as a (+205) underdog. The total is lined at a whopping (-275) to go the distance, so don’t get too excited for an early finish to the evening.
| UFC |  |  |  |
| Movsar Evloev | -240 | -240 | -240 |
| Lerone Murphy | +205 | +198 | +200 |
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Who Loses Their Zero on Saturday Night: Evloev or Murphy?
An old prospect if you will, undefeated Lerone Murphy is 34 years old yet still on an upwards trajectory. “The Miracle”’s lone blemish is a split draw to Zubaira Tukhugov in his UFC debut, a fight in which he was a (+250) underdog. Since then, Murphy has arguably been pretty lucky, earning a close decision over Gabe Santos and beating Aaron Pico and Ricardo Ramos as an underdog in both fights. From a market perspective, I would certainly urge against “buying” Murphy at this point in his career.
Evloev, meanwhile, has fallen out of favor with the UFC brass, seemingly due to his lack of finishes. But any characterization that his fighting profile is “boring” feels somewhat reductive. Evloev has been involved in some exciting fights, including taking on Diego Lopes on short notice in a “Fight of the Night” performance. Fans always love to see a zero next to anyone’s name, and so does the fighter himself. That’s why it’s a real shame to see him still not competing for a title, especially considering the state of the featherweight division.
Evloev beat Lopes that night, but Lopes has gone on to fight for the belt twice and lose emphatically both times. That outcome casts an eerie shadow over this event, as both fighters could make strong claims for title contention. Surely the winner of this gets their chance, right? RIGHT??
I will be passing on this main event. I think the line could even be a bit wider in favor of Evloev but I have no interest in laying the juice on the Russian in what will likely be another victory on points.
Michael Aswell a Live Underdog in Co-Main Event
The co-main event is a unique matchup between Luke Riley and Michael Aswell. It seems the UFC wants to spotlight two strong prospects later on the card. Riley will be the A-side as the British fighter with a spotless 12-0 record. A second-round knockout of Bogdan Grad in his curtain-raiser earned the 26-year-old a Performance of the Night bonus and a favorable matchup on home soil in his next fight.
Yet Michael Aswell should not be waved off lightly. A loss in his first UFC fight to Bolaji Oki still showed plenty of heart and resilience. Aswell looked a bit undersized at lightweight, so it was no surprise to see him getting a first-round knockout in his UFC featherweight debut against Lucas Almeida. Now “The Texas Kid” will get a chance to make himself known in the penultimate fight of the night against a fellow starlet.
Only picked by 5% of tapology voters and still a year younger than his opponent with more experience, Aswell fits the bill for underdogs I like to bet on. I think (+225) is far too wide for a durable, high-volume striker against a largely unproven prospect. I’ll back Aswell to pull off the upset.
UFC Fight Night Predictions: Can Sam Patterson Knock Out MVP?
Another fight that should tickle any striking fans’ fancy comes in the form of Michael “Venom” Page vs Sam Patterson. Unlike the fight to follow these two, this matchup pits a longtime veteran against a prospect. “MVP” will be 39 in less than a month, but still has aspirations of winning an MMA title. The Bellator product fought just once with gold on the line in an interim title fight against Logan Storley, which ended in a decision loss for the Brit.
But an arrival to the UFC has been largely fruitful: 3-1 with back-to-back wins over Jared Cannonier and Shara Magomedov. It’s actually a bit puzzling to see him taking on Patterson after he should arguably be fighting someone in the top ten of the welterweight division. Page voiced his frustrations in a recent interview, suggesting he must have rubbed someone in the UFC the wrong way.
His opponent, Sam Patterson, doesn’t come without accolades either. The Watford-based striker has won his last four fights in the UFC, all via first-round finishes. Patterson is one of the few welterweight fighters who can match MVP’s long reach, measuring out at 78 inches to MVP’s 79 as both stand 6’3”.
I think Sam Patterson is being discredited by the public due to a lack of name recognition, but he deserves to be lined closer than the sportsbooks suggest. After opening around (+200) he has taken a lot of smart money already. The UFC likes to pair up-and-coming fighters with aging, top-name talents to boost the former’s stardom in the event of a win, which they would largely prefer. I’ll side with the UFC matchmakers here and go with Patterson on the moneyline to continue his winning streak.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
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