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- What: UFC 315
- Who: Alexa Grasso Vs. Natalia Silva
- Date: Saturday, May 10, 2025
- Location: Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
This week’s UFC 315 pay-per-view card features two title fights at the top of the card. In the main event, UFC welterweight champion Belal Muhammad faces Jack Della Maddalena. In the evening’s co-main event, UFC women’s flyweight champ Valentina Shevchenko meets Manon Fiorot. Before those two title fights, the promotion presents a high-stakes bout in the women’s 125-pound division as former champion Alexas Grasso squares off against Natalia Silva.
Alexa Grasso (16-4-1) is the No. 1 fighter in the official UFC women’s flyweight rankings. Grasso is 1-1-1 in her past three outings. Each of those fights was for the UFC women’s flyweight title against Valentina Shevchenko. She defeated Shevchenko in March 2023, fought her to a draw in September 2023, and then dropped a decision to Shevchenko in September 2024.
Natalia Silva (18-5-1) is the No. 5 ranked UFC women’s flyweight. She has a 6-0 record under the UFC banner and is coming off a September 2024 decision win over former UFC women’s strawweight champ Jessica Andrade.
Before we look at the best bets for Alexa Grasso Vs. Natalia Silva on the UFC 315 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and our betting picks for the UFC 315 main event.
UFC 315: Alexa Grasso Vs. Natalia Silva betting picks
| Fighters |  |  | BetsUS |  |
| Natalia SIlva | -220 | -225 | -220 | -226 |
| Alexa Grasso | +185 | +185 | +182 | +173 |
UFC 315 betting breakdown: Alexa Grasso
Alexa Grasso is one of the better strikers in the UFC women’s flyweight division. The 31-year-old took a while to find her footing under the UFC banner, but once she established her style and found a comfort level, she rocketed to the top of the division, becoming the first woman to defeat Valentina Shevchenko in a UFC flyweight bout.
Grasso moves forward and puts out a lot of volume with her strikes. However, her landing rate in her past three outings has been 32 percent, 41 percent, and 18 percent, which she will need to improve on against an opponent as talented as Silva. Grasso is 5-1-1 since moving up to 125 pounds from 115 pounds, and while she does not have fight-ending power in her strikes, Grasso is happy to stay in the pocket and slug it out with her foes.
Grasso lands 4.19 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 41 percent. Her striking defense is 58 percent and she absorbs 3.69 strikes per minute. Grasso averages 0.44 takedowns per 15 minutes with a success rate of 40 percent. Her takedown defense is 40 percent.
UFC 315 betting breakdown: Natalia Silva
The 28-year-old Natalia Silva has been a pro fighter since 2015. She is a dynamic striker, who is unafraid of using spinning techniques if she has time and space to do so. Silva is especially effective with her lead leg, throwing kicks with a lot of speed to various targets. She also has better-than-average power and speed in her hands. Two of her six UFC wins have come by TKO. Silva is also a hard fighter to take down. Silva is good at drawing her opponent’s into range where she unloads with volume and accuracy, while also showing good defensive tendencies. She can also employ her wrestling if there is an opening to take the fight to the ground.
Silva lands an average of 5.19 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 47 percent. Her striking defense is 64 percent, and she gets hit, on average, 2.35 times per minute. Silva averages 0.40 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 25 percent. Meanwhile, her takedown defense is a very high 91 percent.
Best Bets: UFC 315: Alexa Grasso Vs. Natalia Silva
This matchup could be a changing of the guard at the top of the UFC women’s flyweight division. While Grasso is talented and has looked very good at 125 pounds, her run as the top contender for the title will end at UFC 315. Silva is simply better than Grasso at every aspect of the fight game. Silva looks like a future UFC champion. She will take the next step toward that goal at UFC 315.
The betting pick is for Natalie Silva to beat Alexa Grasso via decision at UFC 315.
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