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- What: UFC 316
- Who: Mario Bautista Vs. Patchy Mix
- Date: Saturday, June 7, 2025
- Location: Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The next UFC pay-per-view fight card on the schedule is UFC 316, which takes place on Saturday, June 7, from Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The main event of the ESPN+ streaming PPV card is a rematch between current UFC bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili and the man he took the title from, Sean O’Malley. Before that bout, UFC women’s bantamweight champion Julianna Pena puts her title on the line against former PFL champ Kayla Harrison. Also on the UFC 316 pay-per-view card is a pivotal bantamweight bout between Mario Bautista and Patchy Mix.
Mario Bautista (15-2) is the No. 10 fighter in the official UFC bantamweight rankings. Bautista is riding a seven-fight UFC winning streak. His most recent win was an October 2024 split decision over UFC Hall of Famer Jose Aldo.
Patchy Mix (20-1) makes his UFC debut at UFC 316. A former Bellator bantamweight champ, Mix joined the UFC this year. He has won his past seven bouts, a run that included winning and defending the Bellator title. Mix has not fought since May 2024.
Before we look at the best bets for Mario Bautista Vs. Patchy Mix on the UFC 316 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find our betting picks for the UFC 316 main event.
UFC 316: Mario Bautista Vs. Patchy Mix betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| Mario Bautista | +135 | +140 | +130 | +138 |
| Patchy Mix | -155 | -165 | -155 | -167 |
UFC 316: Mario Bautista betting breakdown
Mario Bautista joined the UFC in 2019. He opened his run with the promotion with a 2-2 record, but the 31-year-old has quietly climbed the 135-pound rankings since then, going 7-0 since February 2022 against increasingly tough competition. His two most recent wins have come via decision over Ricky Simon and Jose Aldo.
Bautista does his best work while moving forward and pressuring his opponents. He combines that pressure with a high-output striking attack. However, his significant striking success rate has dipped in his last two fights, both of which came against skilled, veteran opponents. Bautista connected on 41 percent of his attempts against Simon and 34 percent against Aldo. If Bautista hopes to defeat a fighter like Mix, he needs to land at a rate close to what he connected on earlier in his UFC career, which was almost always above 50 percent.
In addition to his pressure and striking, Bautista has shown he can land takedowns when he wants to and rack up control time against the cage and on the mat.
Bautista lands an average of 5.33 significant strikes per minute with a success rate of 47 percent. He absorbs 3.91 significant strikes per minute, and his striking defense is 54 percent. Bautista succeeds on 1.92 takedowns per 15 minutes with a takedown accuracy of 33 percent. His takedown defense is 66 percent.
UFC 316: Patchy Mix betting breakdown
Patchy Mix is considered one of the best bantamweights to have never competed under the UFC banner. He makes his promotional debut at UFC 316, stepping in on short notice to replace former title challenger Marlon Vera opposite Mario Bautista on the main card. Mix has an opportunity to launch himself directly into the top 10 of the division with a win in Newark, and he is the betting favorite ahead of the event.
The 31-year-old is a former King of the Cage and Bellator champion, and his only career loss came in a 2020 five-round Bellator title fight opposite Juan Archuleta. He is 7-0 since then, and his past three fights have all been for Bellator gold. Those fights included a $1 million Bellator Grand Prix win. He signed with the UFC as a free agent in mid-May and was almost immediately booked to face Bautista despite spending over a year outside the cage.
Mix has an active kicking game, which he will look to use to slow Bautista’s pressure and forward motion. It helps that Mix has a height and reach advantage as well against his UFC 316 opponent. Mix can be taken down, but he is active off his back and doesn’t accept positions on the mat. He looks for reversals, stand-ups, and submissions, something his size and strength help him with. Mix has 13 career submission victories. Four of those subs came during his current winning streak.
There are high expectations for Mix, as many pundits felt he could have beaten Sean O’Malley when he was the UFC bantamweight champion.
Best Bets: UFC 316 – Mario Bautista Vs. Patchy Mix
The betting odds are very close on this fight, making Patchy Mix an excellent value, as he is a more talented fighter than Mario Bautista. My only concern about Mix is that he’s entering this fight on short notice and coming off a long break. With that being said, I don’t think he or his team accept this fight unless he was in shape to make his UFC debut.
The betting pick is for Patchy Mix to beat Mario Bautista by decision at UFC 316.
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