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- What: UFC 323 Flyweight Championship Fight
- Who: Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja
- When: Saturday, December 6, 2025
- Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV
The flyweight championship takes center stage in the co-main event of UFC 323 this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena, as Alexandre Pantoja puts his title on the line against surging challenger Joshua Van.
Pantoja has reigned as flyweight king since July 2023 and successfully defended his belt four times, most recently dominating both Kai Asakura and Kai Kara-France with submission victories.
The 35-year-old Brazilian has become a December tradition in Las Vegas, looking to close out another year with a statement win. Pantoja is a back-take specialist with tremendous grappling skills, making him a nightmare matchup for anyone in the 125-pound division.
Standing in his way is 24-year-old phenom Joshua Van, who has won eight of nine UFC fights and enters on a five-fight winning streak. Van predicts a knockout within three rounds, though he faces his toughest test yet against the entrenched champion. The challenger admits he has no rigid game plan, preferring to adapt on the fly and adjust to whatever Pantoja brings.
24-year-old Joshua Van is ready to dethrone Alexandre Pantoja at #UFC323 and become the first champ born in the 2000s.
"I'm here to take that belt from one of the greatest." pic.twitter.com/d6DNQsNTrt
— MMA Junkie (@MMAJunkie) December 3, 2025
The stylistic clash is fascinating. Pantoja must get the fight to the ground, while Van needs to keep it standing and seize early control.
Pantoja is favored; his experience and grappling make him the likely winner, but Van’s youth, athleticism, and confidence are real threats. Saturday night will decide if Pantoja’s reign continues or a new champion from Myanmar emerges.
Before we look at the best bets for Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja on the UFC 323 card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find out how to bet the UFC as well.
UFC 323 Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja Odds
Van has legitimate upset potential, which makes this compelling. His striking prowess and ability to finish fights quickly could catch Pantoja early.
| Winner |  |  |  |
| Joshua Van | +188 | +190 | +200 |
| Alexandre Pantoja | -223 | -230 | -240 |
He may land big shots before the grappling takes over. At 24, Van’s speed and explosiveness give him a physical edge that shouldn’t be dismissed. If he can establish range, control the center, and stuff takedowns in the opening rounds, Van could build momentum and confidence.
That could carry him to a shocking victory. His adaptability and fearlessness against elite competition have served him well during his winning streak.
This fight has all the ingredients for a thrilling clash of styles—veteran champion versus hungry contender, grappling against striking, experience versus youth. Expect fireworks before Pantoja’s inevitable ground dominance takes hold.
Pantoja’s championship pedigree and technical superiority should prove too much for Van.
The Brazilian’s path to victory is clear: pressure early, close distance, and drag this fight into deep waters where his world-class grappling takes over. Pantoja’s veteran ring IQ could exploit Van’s lack of a concrete game plan.
Alexandre Pantoja está listo para defender su cinturón de peso mosca 👊#UFC323 | Sáb 6 de diciembre pic.twitter.com/3rNtBS6MHt
— UFC Español (@UFCEspanol) December 3, 2025
Expect Pantoja to weather Van’s early striking, absorb whatever power the challenger brings, and methodically work toward takedowns in the second and third rounds. Once the fight hits the mat, it’s only a matter of time. Pantoja’s back-taking ability is among the best in MMA, and Van hasn’t faced anyone with this level of submission expertise.
The champion should secure his fifth title defense continuing his December dominance and cementing his legacy as one of the flyweight’s greatest champions. Van’s time will come, but Saturday belongs to Pantoja.
Total Rounds
Smart money should consider the over 2.5 rounds in this championship bout. While both fighters possess finishing ability, several factors point toward a longer fight.
| Rounds | | | |
| Over 2.5 | -225 | -225 | -250 |
| Under 2.5 | +189 | +186 | +200 |
Van’s defensive awareness and takedown defense have improved significantly during his winning streak, meaning he won’t be an easy mark for Pantoja’s grappling early on.
The challenger will likely find success with his striking in the opening frame, which could force Pantoja to adjust his approach and become more calculated with his takedown attempts.
Championship fights naturally carry higher stakes and more cautious approaches, especially in the early rounds, as both fighters feel each other out.
Pantoja, despite his finishing prowess, has shown patience in working toward his submissions rather than rushing into positions. He’ll need time to break down Van’s defenses, close distance effectively, and tire out the younger fighter’s legs with pressure and body work.
#UFC323 flyweight title challenger Joshua Van reacts to those who believe he's not ready to face Alexandre Pantoja. 👀 🔥
(Via @DamonMartin) pic.twitter.com/hNykkNrAFr
— MMA Fighting (@MMAFighting) December 3, 2025
Given Van’s cardio and youth, he likely won’t fade quickly, even under Pantoja’s relentless pace. Early rounds may play out on the feet with Van circling, landing combinations, and resetting before Pantoja can secure extended grappling exchanges.
As the fight progresses and Pantoja works to establish consistent top control and begin hunting for back takes, we are likely deep into round three or beyond. Even if Pantoja secures the finish as predicted, the path to that point should still take us past the halfway mark of this five-round championship affair.
It’s a safe bet that this one goes Over 2.5 rounds at -225 odds.
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