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The UFC heads on the road this weekend as they visit sunny Houston, Texas for UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Hernandez. The 267th edition of the event features plenty of Americans across the board, including two in the main event. The action kicks off at 5 pm Eastern on Saturday as the MMA party continues on Paramount+ in their first year broadcasting the UFC. Read My Top Sportsbooks’s expert UFC fight card predictions and explore stats and tips to improve your UFC Fight Night picks.
- Ultimate Fighting Championship
- UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Hernandez
- Toyota Center, Houston, TX
- Saturday, February 21, 2026
- Paramount+
UFC Fight Card Predictions: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?
Anthony Hernandez is a big odds-on favorite to win the showpiece event of the weekend. The Mexican-American fighter is lined at (-280) to extend his win streak to nine. Former middleweight champion Sean Strickland is (+240) to pull off the upset in Houston, Texas. The fight is expected to end inside the distance, with the total set at 4.5 rounds, albeit shaded towards the over.
| UFC |  |  |  |
| Sean Strickland | +239 | +230 | +230 |
| Anthony Hernandez | -279 | -280 | -280 |
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Will Hernandez Continue His Dominant Run to the Title?
One of the biggest stories in the middleweight division is the rise of Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez. A charismatic pothead with a penchant for chain wrestling, Fluffy has rattled off eight straight wins, including five finishes, to cement his place firmly in the title picture. A win over Sean Strickland may beg the question to UFC brass about a title opportunity for the northern Californian.
With over 35 MMA fights to his name, Strickland is as battle-tested as they come and has fought the likes of Nassourdine Imavov, Alex Pereira and Paulo Costa in recent years. Strickland hit his peak in a shocking upset of Israel Adesanya back in 2023, but the fellow Californian met his match in his first title defense in a split decision loss to Dricus Du Plessis. Criticism has caught up to the former champion as fans fiend for finishes; Strickland has just one stoppage win to his name in his last 11 tries.
Championship “hangovers” are a real phenomenon in the UFC. It is historically profitable to fade fighters coming off a loss in a title bout, putting Strickland in danger here. Additionally, Hernandez’s nonstop wrestling attacks have been difficult for anyone to prevent in this division. But at (-280), it seems the market is in agreement with my analysis, and therefore I cannot find any value in the main event. Verdict: Pass.
Can Uros Medic Upset Geoff Neal in Co-Main Event?
While the main event is expected to go long, the penultimate fight of the evening sets up to be a banger as the Serbian Uros Medic faces off with Geoff Neal. Medic enters this fight likely just outside the welterweight rankings after two straight victories in the octagon. After a disappointing start to 2025 saw Medic knocked out in the first round by Punahele Soriano, the Yugoslavian-born fighter rallied to beat Gilbert Urbina and Muslim Salikhov to finish the year with a positive record.
His opponent’s year was not so successful, however. Neal was knocked out by Carlos Prates in August with a spinning back elbow after originally withdrawing from the matchup in April. That was the 35-year-old’s only action in the octagon in 2025. “Handz of Steel” is now just 1-3 in his last four fights dating back to 2022, with the only victory coming courtesy of a Rafael Dos Anjos leg injury.
All signs point to the tides shifting between Geoff Neal and Uros Medic. One fighter is 31 and off back-to-back wins while another hasn’t really won a fight in almost four years. It is profitable to bet on short underdogs in the UFC, and even more so when the fighter is younger than their opponent. This should be a statement win for the Serb as he looks to put a number next to his name come Tuesday.
UFC Fight Card Predictions: Other Fighters to Target
Further down the card we find some additional matchups worth betting on. Serghei Spivac presents an interesting proposition as a heavyweight with grappling prowess. The Moldovan has been a staple in the UFC’s heaviest weight class with 14 fights in the last six years. Yet the “Polar Bear” has fallen on hard times recently. Spivac is just 1-3 in his last four fights akin to Neal, albeit against strong competition.
While Spivac has met the likes of Waldo Cortes-Acosta, Jailton Almeida, Marcin Tybura and Ciryl Gane, Ante Delija comes to the UFC largely unproven. A long stint in the PFL against weak opposition does not inspire confidence, and he can commiserate with Spivac in losing to Cortes-Acosta most recently. Curiously, he also last won against Tybura with a first-round finish. That being said, the Croatian has demonstrated he still has a lot of pep in his step as he prepares for a 34th professional fight.
Votes from Tapology, a popular MMA statistics and prediction platform, indicate the public swoons over Delija’s chances with 86% picking the 35-year-old. Yet Spivac is getting steam on betting markets, so there could be some value on the Moldovan to get his groove back in 2026.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
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