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The UFC returns to Mexico for its eighth event in the country to date with an excellent card in store for fight fans. Brandon Moreno headlines the event as he did last year against Steve Erceg in Arena CDMX. He will go toe-to-toe with Lone’er Kavanagh, a short-notice opponent stepping up in Asu Almabayev’s stead. Continue reading to access expert UFC Fight Night best bets and explore stats and tips to improve your UFC fight night picks.
- Ultimate Fighting Championship
- UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh
- Arena CDMX, Azcapotzalco, Mexico City, Mexico
- Saturday, February 28, 2026
- Paramount+
UFC Fight Night Best Bets: Main Event Betting Odds
Former UFC Flyweight champion Brandon Moreno is fancied by top online sportsbooks to return to winning form come Saturday night. The Mexican fighter is a consensus (-250) favorite over Lone’er Kavanagh. Kavanagh is lined at (+210) accordingly. The total is not yet lined, but expect it to open at 4.5 rounds.
| UFC |  |  |  |
| Brandon Moreno | -250 | -250 | -250 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | +210 | +206 | +210 |
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Will Brandon Moreno Win on Home Soil?
Brandon Moreno sees just one year elapse between his last main event in Mexico City. The last time his fans saw him at home was a win on points against Steve Erceg. The victory marked back-to-back triumphs for “The Assassin Baby,” but he soon fell to Tatsuro Taira later in the year. It wasn’t a particularly good look for Moreno, either: Taira only needed 8 minutes to finish the veteran, getting a technical knockout with punches after taking Moreno’s back.
It was the first time anyone ever defeated Brandon Moreno inside the distance, denying another attempt at gold for the Mexican. Moreno is now just 2-3 in his last five fights and 4-4 in his last eight, dating back to 2021. At 32 years old, there is still plenty of time for Moreno to revive his career and win back his belt, but I reserve my enthusiasm. Flyweight is a punishing division for older athletes and Moreno has mentioned retiring several times.
Can Lone’er Kavanagh Get the Upset on Short Notice?
Lone’er Kavanagh’s name feels like it was pulled out of a hat when this fight was booked. The 26-year old has just 10 pro fights to his name and just 3 in the UFC. Additionally, he had never entered the UFC rankings until he was strangely added in late November of 2025, despite losing his last fight and not being active at the time. But duty calls, and Kavanagh got the nod ahead of any potential flyweight candidates by being prepared to take on Moreno on just four weeks’ notice.
Indeed, Asu Almabayev was the originally scheduled opponent, but an injury during training camp forced his absence from the competition. Kavanagh steps in after suffering a knockout to Charles Johnson back in August. The Englishman previously recorded wins over Jose Ochoa and Felipe dos Santos to begin his UFC career, both by unanimous decision. Kavanagh earned a contract in the UFC through Dana White’s Contender Series.
Prior to his success on DWCS, Kavanagh went undefeated in the London-based Cage Warriors promotion, often seen as a testing ground for up-and-comers in MMA looking to eventually join the UFC. Conor McGregor, Michael Bisping, Paddy Pimblett and others share their grassroots in Cage Warriors. Interestingly, Kavanagh is of mixed Chinese and Irish heritage, and has fought twice in China for the UFC.
UFC Fight Night Best Bets: Expert Moreno vs Kavanagh Prediction
The public will surely love Brandon Moreno’s chances here. He is getting an inexperienced, short-notice opponent on home soil whose name few will recognize. Moreno’s talent, 5-round experience, and preparation could all represent massive advantages over Lone’er Kavanagh. It is no surprise the Mexican is lined at (-250) to win this matchup.
Yet all signs I trust when betting MMA point me in the direction of the underdog. Kavanagh is 6 years younger than Moreno, which makes a huge difference in flyweight, a division where speed, stamina and athleticism are truly tested. Additionally, the notion of “home advantage” is unsubstantiated in MMA.
Historical statistics cannot prove with any real significance that fighters actually perform better in their home countries when factoring out easier matchmaking. In fact, in main and co-main events where the skill gaps shrink, it is a negligible factor. Just ask Moreno himself: his win over Erceg in Mexico City was his first victory in Mexico in four tries in the UFC. And judging bias can be ruled out also, as Moreno endured a split decision loss, unanimous decision loss, and a draw in those other 3 fights.
The UFC has traditionally fared well when “gambling” on giving unproven talents massive steps up in competition, especially in the lighter divisions. Sean O’Malley, Steve Erceg and Josh Van have all enjoyed success after being pushed quickly by the company brass. I will gamble on Kavanagh too here at (+210), available at BetOnline and Bovada.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
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