Trent Reinsmith
- Date & Location: Saturday, May 22, 2021, @ UFC Apex in Las Vegas
- Odds: Rob Font (-120) vs. Cody Garbrandt (+100) BetOnline
- Prediction: Font via knockout
The UFC returns to Las Vegas and the UFC Apex for Saturday’s UFC Vegas 27 fight card. The main event is an important matchup in the UFC’s bantamweight division. In that fight, former champion Cody Garbrandt returns to the octagon for the first time since June 2020 against Rob Font, who is coming off a December victory.
Font, who is the No. 3 ranked 135-pound UFC fighter, is on a three-fight winning streak. He has won fight-night bonus awards in his past two outings and his most recent win was a first-round knockout victory over former World Series of Fighting champion and ex-UFC title challenger Marlon Moraes.
Garbrandt won the UFC crown in December 2016 with a victory over Dominick Cruz. The win moved Garbrandt’s record to 11-0. He lost his next three outings by knockout. Garbrandt bounced back with a knockout win over Raphael Assuncao in June 2020. The former champ has faced injuries since that win, suffering a torn bicep and a case of COVID-19 that left Garbrandt with lingering effects from the virus including brain fog. Garbrandt is the No. 4 ranked fighter in the division.
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FONT vs. GARBRANDT PREDICTION & PICK
These two have 18 knockout wins between them and it won’t be a surprise if this fight increases that number to 19.
I think this will be an exciting striking battle and I think Font will be the better of the two fighters and that he will continue his climb toward a UFC bantamweight title shot with a win over Garbrandt.
I think this fight comes down to the power, technical ability, and mixed striking attack of Font vs. the speed and violence of Garbrandt with the second factor being Garbrandt’s inability to stay out of danger.
No matter how good Garbrandt is — and he is extremely good — he does not seem to have the ability to avoid getting into a war with his opponents. That inability to engage in dangerous striking battles once he gets hit hard is the reason Garbrandt has been knocked out three times. Once Font tags him and hurts him, Garbrandt is going to bite down on his mouthpiece and get reckless and that is likely to cost him the fight.
Prediction: Font -125 via Bovada.
BETTING VALUE WITH FONT
This is going to be a striking battle and I think Font is the better fighter on the feet. He is more of a technical boxer than his opponent and he is a more patient fighter. These two are the same height, but Font has a six-inch reach advantage, and he also has a good front kick. Font should be able to keep Garbrandt at range and I think that will frustrate Garbrandt and leave him open. Font has also never been knocked out. His ability to stay calm and not leave himself open will serve him well against an emotional fighter like Garbrandt. I also believe Garbrandt will fight Font as if he has something to prove and that he will want to make up for the lost time. I don’t think that approach will serve Garbrandt well.
I think there is value in the Font pick by knockout just because of how these two compete. With that said, anyone who feels strongly about Garbrandt should not be afraid to pick him via knockout.
As for prop bets, I don’t see this one going the distance, especially since it is scheduled for five rounds.
Pick: Font via knockout -130 via BetUS.
WHO HAS THE EDGE?
I believe Font has the technical edge, but I also think his reach will play a big role in this fight as will his ability to pick his spots. Some pundits knock Font for his laid-back approach, but the fact is he lands more significant strikes per minute than Garbrandt, he is more accurate than his opponent and he can get Garbrandt at least a little worried about his takedown ability.
Overall, I see Font as the more complete package in this contest.
FIGHT STATS: FONT vs. GARBRANDT
| Rob Font | Category | Cody Garbrandt |
| 33 | Age | 29 |
| 18-4 | Record | 12-3 |
| 8 | Knockout Wins | 10 |
| 4 | Submission Wins | 0 |
| 6 | Decision Wins | 2 |
| 5’8″ | Height | 5’8″ |
| 135 | Weight | 135 |
| 71″ | Reach | 65″ |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 5.21 | Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.35 |
| 42% | Striking Accuracy | 37% |
| 3.83 | Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute | 3.33 |
| 62% | Striking Defense | 65% |
| 1.20 | Takedown Average Per 15 Minutes | 0.84 |
| 36% | Takedown Accuracy | 33% |
| 48% | Takedown Defense | 100% |
| 0.8 | Submission Average Per 15 Minutes | 0.0 |
WHAT’S AT STAKE?
With the title picture on hold as Aljamain Sterling recovers from neck surgery, I think the best the winner of this fight can hope for is landing a title eliminator bout and even that might be doubtful with Cory Sandhagen and T.J. Dillashaw on the schedule.
