UFC Vegas 31: Makhachev vs. Moises Betting Odds & Picks

  • Date & Location: Saturday, July 17, 2021, @ UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Odds: Islam Makhachev (-700) vs. Thiago Moises (+450) via BetOnline
  • Prediction: Makhachev via decision

The UFC moves from the T-Mobile Arena where it held UFC 264 back to the cozy confines of the UFC Apex for the UFC Vegas 31 fight card.

The main event of this fight card features a lightweight matchup between Islam Makhachev and Thiago Moises. Makhachev is the No. 9 ranked fighter in the official UFC lightweight rankings. Moises is ranked at the No. 14 position at 155 pounds.

Makhachev is on a seven-fight winning streak entering this matchup. The 29-year-old suffered a knockout loss in his second UFC contest in 2015. Since then he has been steadily climbing the lightweight ranks with four decision wins, two submissions, and one knockout. He is coming off a March submission win over Drew Dober.

Moises has not been as successful as his opponent. The 26-year-old is 4-2 in the UFC. Moises is on a three-fight winning streak. He is coming off a decision win over Alexander Hernandez in February.

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1st FighterBetOnlineBetOnline2nd Fighter
Islam Makhachev-700+450Thiago Moises

MAKHACHEV vs. MOISES PREDICTION & PICK

Makhachev is a teammate of former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. The younger fighter has been compared to the retired Nurmagomedov. He has also been the fighter Nurmagomedov has said will be a champion in the UFC lightweight division one day.

Nurmagomedov said the deal Makhachev had with the UFC said he would get a top-10 opponent after the Dober fight. That didn’t happen, according to Nurmagomedov, because no top-ranked lightweight was willing to face Makhachev.

Makhachev deserves an opponent who is higher ranked than Moises, but Moises gets some respect for being a fighter who took a matchup many would avoid. However, that will not change the outcome. Makhachev should win this scrap with not much difficulty.

Pick: Makhachev -700 via Bovada.

Islam MakhachevTO BEAT THIAGO MOISES
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-700
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BETTING VALUE WITH MAKHACHEV

I have incredibly high confidence that Makhachev is going to win this fight. However, there is not much value in Makhachev at -700. I would instead look at a prop on the number of rounds or how the contest will end for value. Moises is a tough customer and a game opponent. He has never been knocked out or submitted and I don’t think Makhachev is the fighter who will get the first finish on him. All but three of Makhachev’s 11 stoppage wins came before he joined the UFC. With that, I see the fight going five rounds and Makhachev winning via decision.

Prediction: Makhachev via decision -665 via Bookmaker.

Islam Makhachev TO WIN BY DECISION
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-665
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WHO HAS THE EDGE?

Makhachev, like Nurmagomedov, is superb at taking his opponents down and keeping them down. He has scored 20 takedowns in the UFC and his top position time of 40:20 ranks him eighth among active UFC lightweight fighters. His top position percentage of 46.5 is second among active 155 pounders. If Moises wants to stand any chance in this matchup, he needs to concentrate on takedown defense and getting off the mat if he gets taken down. That’s going to be a struggle.

 

FIGHT STATS: MAKHACHEV vs. MOISES

Islam Makhachev Category Thiago Moises
29 Age 26
19-1 Record 15-4
3 Knockout Wins 3
8 Submission Wins 6
8 Decision Wins 6
5’10” Height 5’9″
155 Weight 155
70″ Reach 70″
Southpaw Stance Orthodox
2.00 Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 2.85
56% Striking Accuracy 37%
0.77 Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute 3.88
70% Striking Defense 60%
3.46 Takedown Average Per 15 Minutes 1.06
68% Takedown Accuracy 33%
93% Takedown Defense 63%
1.0 Submission Average Per 15 Minutes 1.2

WHAT’S AT STAKE

As mentioned above, Makhachev is a potential future champion. This fight won’t get him a title fight, but it will hopefully earn him a contest against an opponent who is at least ranked between No. 5 and No. 10 in the lightweight division. A slow climb up the lightweight ladder is only a good thing for Makhachev, but the UFC might need to make it worth it for those fighters to face Makhachev.

As for Moises, an upset here would be an enormous boost for his profile.

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Trent Reinsmith

Trent covers UFC and MMA for MTS. He currently covers MMA for MMA Junkie and Forbes. He has also written for Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively among others. He has been involved with MMA since he and some friends threw some money together to purchase the pay-per-view of UFC 1, and the rest is history.