UFC Vegas 28: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai Betting Odds & Picks

  • Date & Location: Saturday, June 5, 2021, @ UFC Apex in Las Vegas
  • Odds:  Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-120) vs. Augusto Sakai (+100) BetOnline
  • Prediction: Rozenstruik via knockout

On Saturday, the UFC returns after a week off for UFC Vegas 28. The fight card takes place on June 5 at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Top-10 ranked heavyweights, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Augusto Sakai headline the event, which streams on ESPN+.

Rozenstruik, who is the No. 6 ranked fighter in the official UFC heavyweight rankings, opened his MMA career on a 10-0 run. The Surinamese scrapper had four knockouts in his first four UFC bouts, including stoppages of Alistair Overeem and Andrei Arlovski. He is 1-2 in his past three fights. Rozenstruik losses are to Francis Ngannou and Ciryl Gane.

Sakai checks in at No. 9 in the heavyweight division. He was on a 15-1-1 run when he faced Overeem in September. Overeem won that fight via fifth-round TKO. Sakai has not fought since that setback. He was 4-0 in his UFC career before that. The Brazilian had two knockouts and two decisions in those outings.

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Fighter 1BovadaBovadaFighter 2
Jairzinho Rozenstruik-120+100Augusto Sakai

ROZENSTRUIK vs. SAKAI PREDICTION & PICK

It’s hard to deny Rozenstruik’s ability to end a fight with one strike. In his second UFC outing, Rozenstruik decked Allen Crowder in nine seconds. Against Overeem, “Bigi Boy” scored a knockout win with four seconds remaining in the five-round contest. Ten of Rozenstruik’s wins have come through knockout.

One concern about Rozenstruik is his defense. He gets hit more than he lands and his striking defense is only 39 percent. In comparison. Sakai has a striking defense of 50 percent.

Despite his lack of defense, I think Rozenstruik’s power will carry the day.

Prediction: Rozenstruik -120 via Bovada.

Jairzinho RozenstruikTO BEAT AUGUSTO SAKAI
star iconstar iconstar iconstar iconstar icon
-120
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BETTING VALUE WITH ROZENSTRUIK

I’ll start with Sakai. I think he is a live underdog. He has good footwork and movement for a heavyweight. He also has a tendency to blitz his opponents. If Rozenstruik gets off to a slow start and the fight goes deep into the late rounds, Sakai can score a decision win. He’ll be an even better value for a victory if he outstrikes Rozenstruik.

Rozenstruik is a knockout machine. He can also go five rounds. His win over Overeem showed Rozenstruik is always in a fight because of his power, but it has to be noted that he was on his way to losing that matchup until he scored the knockout. The reason Overeem was ahead was his output and accuracy. He landed at a 70 percent clip, while Rozenstruik scored with 42 percent of his significant strikes.

I think Rozenstruik will get the knockout win, but I can’t ignore that he could also get outpointed by Sakai.

Pick: Rozenstruik -125 via knockout via BetUs.

WHO HAS THE EDGE?

Rozenstruik has the power edge. Sakai has the edge in technical skills. I believe that’s the reason the odds are close as they are for this matchup. Either fighter has a route to victory.

I do think the power will be the difference in this fight, especially with it being a heavyweight scrap. Rozenstruik just has to find the off button once to win, Sakai will have to grind 25 minutes to get the win, and that’s why I favor Rozenstruik.

FIGHT STATS: ROZENSTRUIK vs. SAKAI

Jairzinho Rozenstruik Category Augusto Sakai
33 Age 30
11-2 Record 15-2-1
10 Knockout Wins 11
0 Submission Wins 0
1 Decision Wins 4
6’4″ Height 6’3″
242 Weight 265
78″ Reach 77″
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
3.14 Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.32
48% Striking Accuracy 48%
3.48 Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute 4.02
39% Striking Defense 50%
0.00 Takedown Average Per 15 Minutes 0.15
0% Takedown Accuracy 50%
80% Takedown Defense 66%
0.00 Submission Average Per 15 Minutes 0.00

WHAT’S AT STAKE?

With recent losses neither of these men will get a shot at the heavyweight title in 2021, however, if the winner can start a winning streak on Saturday night, they could see their fortunes change in 2022. This fight is an important one for both Rozenstruik and Sakai.

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Trent Reinsmith

Trent covers UFC and MMA for MTS. He currently covers MMA for MMA Junkie and Forbes. He has also written for Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively among others. He has been involved with MMA since he and some friends threw some money together to purchase the pay-per-view of UFC 1, and the rest is history.