Chris Boline
- France v Tunisia
- Wednesday, November 30, 2022, 08:00 ET
- At Education City Stadium, Al Rayyan
France has already qualified for the knockout stages and needs one more win, against their final opponents Tunisia, for a perfect record in Group C
Who do Bettors Favor?
According to the odds on the best-rated online sportsbooks we can see that France is regarded by bettors as the likeliest winner in this game. Didier Deschamps’ team is priced at -180 to win the match, while Tunisia is the underdogs at +560, and the draw is considered a +300 chance.
| France v Tunisia |  |  |  |
| France | -170 | -178 | -180 |
| Draw | +300 | +300 | +280 |
| Tunisia | +565 | +520 | +575 |
World Cup Group D Betting Briefing
World Cup Group D has largely gone to form so far, the only slight surprise being Denmark’s draw with Tunisia, which has left them with only one point going into the last round of games, although they will be hoping to gain three points from their final game against Australia.
Complicating the dynamics of this final round of Group games is the fact that in Group C, with which this Group is paired in the Round of 16 draw, results have not been going according to form, with the result that the pre-tournament Group D favorites Argentina may finish second rather than winning the section.
That would mean the team that wins Group C would face Argentina in the Round of 16, which is far from ideal. Still, in their current form, France would probably expect to beat anyone they came up against, so it seems unlikely that they will be taking their foot off the gas at this point.
For the other three teams in the Group, everything is still up for grabs. Tunisia and Denmark need to win their final games, while Australia, on three points, can afford to draw and still reach the Round of 16.
France Thriving in Adversity
Ahead of the tournament, France were rated as close challengers to Brazil, but a series of injury blows appeared to have damaged their prospects. Two first choice central midfielders, Paul Pogba and N’golo Kante, were ruled out and then, shortly before the tournament, there was a cruel blow with the news that Karim Benzema, who has been in the form of his life over the last few months, would also miss out.
Yet, this unwelcome adversity seems to have had a positive effect on France. A few weeks ago, there was talk of unrest in the dressing room and factionalism, but the loss of three key players has appeared to bring the squad together and they have been in excellent form.
Kylian Mbappe in particular seems to be thriving in the role that he prefers – playing off a traditional striker, while Olivier Giroud has stepped up to replace Benzema, relying on his vast experience. As they go deeper into the tournament, those high-profile absences may be felt more, but at the moment, it seems to have simplified France’s selection issues and unleashed their attacking flair.
Wasteful Tunisia Facing Last Chance
Tunisia came into this tournament expecting to be in competition with Australia for third place in the Group but hoping that things might break their way enabling them to sneak into the Round of 16. They may yet still make it to the knockout stages, but if they are to get there, they will need to do it the hard way, as their last chance requires them to beat the World Cup holders in their final game.
In terms of shots per 90 minutes, Tunisia rank inside the top ten, and ahead of Sunday’s games, they were fourth in total shots. Yet they rank 27 out of 32 when it comes to shots on target percentage. Only 18.5% of their shots have hit the target, compared to the tournament median of 31.7.
This wastefulness in front of goal, combined with some muddled tactical thinking has left them with little option but to go for goals from the start against France.
World Cup Group D Match Betting
Trailing 1-0 to Australia in their second Group game, Tunisia took an eternity to commit to the attack in the second half. Yet when they did push forwards, they created some chances against a well-set Australian defense, so France will have to be wary of underestimating their opponents here.
But such is the firepower in the French lineup that even if Tunisia manage to get a goal, France will be confident of scoring two more of their own. France is also defensively solid, so it is likely that Tunisia will have to work a lot harder to even create chances.
It is possible that Didier Deschamps will rest one or two players here, so betting on a high-scoring game may not be a good idea, but a French win looks like a solid pick in the Match Betting market.
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