Chris Boline
- Netherlands v Qatar
- Tuesday November 29, 2022, 10:00 ET
- At Al Bayt Stadium, Al Khor
The Netherlands can wrap up their qualification for the Round of 16 on Tuesday, but betting on plenty of goals could be a mistake in this game.
Who do Bettors Favor?
Checking the odds on the best-rated online sportsbooks we can see that World Cup bettors are heavily favoring the Netherlands ahead of their final Group game. Louis van Gaal’s team are rated as short as -675 to win this match, with the hosts at +1950 and the draw around +690.
| Netherlands v Qatar |  |  |
| Netherlands | -676 | -676 |
| Draw | +690 | +675 |
| Qatar | +1750 | +1950 |
World Cup Group A Betting Briefing
With qualification to the knockout rounds at stake, the final round of Group games at a World Cup can often involve complicated calculations, unusual tactics, and plenty of drama. Many final Group games are all-or-nothing games, but even those like this one that appears to have little at stake can be of great importance to the ultimate outcome of the Group.
Group A has proved to be less competitive than expected. Qatar cannot qualify for the Round of 16, while the Netherlands merely has to avoid defeat to ensure that they go through.
For Louis van Gaal’s team, winning the Group may not be as important as it would have seemed at the start of the tournament. Based on what we’ve seen, the two likeliest opponents for the Netherlands in the Round of 16 – England and the USA – are closely matched. In those circumstances, there seems to be little to gain for the Netherlands in going all out for goals and potentially risking a disastrous defeat.
For Qatar, there is nothing tangible at stake, but they will want to sign off with a strong performance. They showed marked improvement in their second game against Senegal and will be aiming to repeat that here. A Qatar victory, unlikely though it seems, could potentially knock the Netherlands out.
Netherlands Uninspiring So Far
The Netherlands are often one of the most exciting teams at a major tournament, but that hasn’t been the case this time round, as they have inched cautiously towards a total of four points.
Their uninspiring play is not primarily the result of van Gaal’s tactics, although he will probably take much of the blame. This is a Netherlands squad with an impressive array of world-class defenders, but with very little to offer at the other end of the field, depending almost entirely on Cody Gakpo.
They created very little against Senegal, but two late goals gave them victory, and they were particularly negative against Ecuador, registering 0.1 in Expected Goals against Ecuador’s 1.7, yet coming through with a point that has set them up for qualification.
To be fair to the manager, he expressed his disappointment with his team’s performance in all aspects after the Ecuador game. The dilemma for him here is whether to try new ideas, rest key players or go again with his first team lineup and hope to build some momentum.
Qatar Aiming to Finish in Style
Qatar was always up against it in this Group, but their limp display in the first game against Ecuador, when they appeared to freeze, made it all but impossible and although they played better against Senegal, and arguably deserved a point, they had already missed their chance.
Of course, the fact that they are playing in front of their own fans at home means that they are unlikely to fade away quietly as many teams in this situation may opt to do.
It would be reasonable to expect them to want to finish the tournament in style and that calculation may ultimately lead to the Netherlands playing a full-strength team here. Qatar seems to be a team with some potential but lacking in confidence, and with the pressure off, they could improve again here.
World Cup Group A Match Betting
The betting markets seem to be suggesting a comfortable Netherlands win and plenty of goals, but while a Netherlands win is the most likely way for this game to end, we shouldn’t count on it being high scoring.
Throughout their Group A campaign so far the Netherlands have been defensively resolute but have offered little creativity or finishing power up front, and while it remains technically possible for them to be eliminated in this game, there seems little chance that van Gaal’s team will be going for goals here.
The Netherlands will probably control the game and progress comfortably, but a low-scoring game looks like the best call in the betting markets for this Group A game.
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