Chris Boline
- Saudi Arabia v Mexico
- Wednesday, November 30, 2022, 14:00 ET
- At the Lusail Iconic Stadium, Lusail
Saudi Arabia shocked the football world when they beat Argentina in their opening game but they are a big price in the betting markets to repeat the performance against Mexico.
Who do Bettors Favor?
According to the best-rated online sportsbooks Mexico is the favorite with bettors going into this final Group C game. They can be wagered on at -145 while Saudi Arabia are a top price of +425, with the draw – a result that would be no use to Mexico – rated as +320.
| Saudi Arabia v Mexico |  |  |  |
| Saudi Arabia | +390 | +390 | +425 |
| Draw | +325 | +310 | +320 |
| Mexico | -145 | -151 | -165 |
World Cup Group C Betting Briefing
There was a sense of normality returning for the second round of Group C matches after the shock of the first-round win of Saudi Arabia against Argentina.
The pre-tournament Group C favorites salvaged their campaign with a vital 2-0 win over Mexico to earn three points, while Saudi Arabia proved unable to repeat their opening game heroics against a resolute Poland, for whom Robert Lewandowski finally got off the mark at a World Cup.
Mexico, who would have had realistic hopes of challenging Poland for second place in this Group, go into the final round of games at the bottom of the table and need a win here to have any chance of progressing. They also Poland to do them a favor by beating Argentina, although a draw in that game could possibly be enough, as long as Mexico can rack up a big win over Saudi Arabia.
Saudi are in a better position. With three points on the board already, they could even go on to win the Group, if they were to beat Mexico and Poland drew with Argentina. That seems unlikely, but they know that a win would definitely take them through and a draw would still give them a chance.
Saudi Arabia May Have Peaked
That first victory over Argentina will live long in the memories of Saudi fans, but based on what we saw against Poland, that may have been their peak at this World Cup.
They didn’t create a lot during the game against Argentina, scoring twice from three shots on goal, and then missed a golden opportunity against Poland, fluffing a penalty and then falling apart in defense to allow Lewandowski to seal the Polish win.
Going forwards, Saudi can cause teams problems, and their enterprising style, along with the occasional moment of brilliance, always poses a threat. Defensively, however, they are vulnerable and have one of the weaker backlines in the tournament, leaving them at risk of leaking a goal at any time.
They lack the big tournament experience to play for the draw here so will be adopting their usual attacking style, which should at least make for an exciting game.
Mexico Short on Goals
Mexico has looked relatively solid so far in this tournament, but they are desperately short on goals, which is not surprising given the absence of Javier Hernandez and Jesus Corona.
More worrying for Mexico fans is the fact that their team is not creating much either. They rank 28th out of 32 teams at the tournament when it comes to Expected Goals created and have an average of 7.5 shots per game, compared to Saudi Arabia’s 9 per match.
It is difficult to know what Mexico head coach Gerardo Martino can do to change the situation given the options in his squad. He has already used 19 players in their two games so far, and it is likely that he will simply opt to put out his best team and hope that their ability is enough to see off Saudi Arabia. Qualification may ultimately depend on how many goals his team scores, but winning the game is all that they will be focusing on at this stage.
World Cup Group C Match Betting
Mexico’s inability to create and score goals is an obvious problem and one that might deter bettors from picking the favorites in the betting markets here, particularly given how dangerous Saudi Arabia have looked at certain moments so far in this competition.
In Mexico’s favor this time, however, is that they are up against the worst defensive team in the Group, and that means there will be opportunities to create and score goals. Whether Mexico will be able to take those chances remains to be seen, and given their lack of firepower up front, I don’t think they will be able to force the big win they would ideally need to increase their chances of progressing, but a Mexico win looks the best pick in the Match Betting market.
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