MLB Odds – Projecting the All-Stars

14149203565_c57c4c6da9_zDid you know you’ve had the ability to vote for the 2016 MLB All-Star for the last month? Yes, despite having the incredibly small sample size of “some of April,” fans have had the ability to determine who is worthy of a starting spot in the Midsummer Classic. And those uninformed votes count for slightly more this year as the MLB tries to limit ballot stuffing.

This year, individuals can only vote a maximum of 35 times, perhaps hoping to stop another “Royals rumble” on the internet. But if I know fan voting, people will always find a way to send the least-deserving players to an event that hasn’t carried any real weight since the 80s.

Even though it will undoubtedly not shake down this way, here are the 17 players who should be starting in San Diego on July 12 (along with their odds to actually get voted in)

Who should be selected (and odds they will be)

AL Roster

  • C: Salvador Perez, Royals (1/10)
  • 1B: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (1/3)
  • 2B: Robinson Cano, Mariners (3/1)
  • SS: Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox (4/5)
  • 3B: Manny Machado, Orioles (2/1)
  • OF: Nomar Mazara, Rangers (9/2)
  • OF: Mike Trout, Angels (1/20)
  • OF: Jackie Bradley Jr., Red Sox (2/3)
  • DH: David Ortiz, Red Sox (1/9)

There aren’t a ton of surprises here, based solely on production. The red-hot Red Sox offense should claim more than a few starting spots, especially Ortiz who is killing it in his “farewell season.” Perhaps the biggest debate is who should claim the third spot in the outfield, where a number of players have a claim to Mazara’s spot. Mookie Betts and Adam Eaton aren’t very exciting, but they’re having outstanding seasons. Meanwhile Mark Trumbo is hitting the stuffing out of the ball; calling him an “outfielder” may be using the term too liberally, though. 

NL Roster

  • C: Yadier Molina, Cardinals (4/7)
  • 1B: Anthony Rizzo, Cubs (5/3)
  • 2B: Daniel Murphy, Nationals (1/1)
  • SS: Trevor Story, Rockies (2/5)
  • 3B: Nolan Arenado, Rockies (1/1)
  • OF: Yoenis Cespedes, Mets (5/4)
  • OF: Dexter Fowler, Cubs (3/1)
  • OF: Bryce Harper, Nationals (1/12)

Paul Goldschmidt’s having a down year (by his lofty standards), and that should open the door for the Cubs’ long-bomber Rizzo to find a starting spot at first. The best team in baseball won’t be starting a ton of guys thanks to some extraordinary seasons in Colorado and Washington. However, thanks to small sample sizes, Fowler should earn himself a spot in the outfield for his fast start.

Who will be selected

AL Roster:

  • C: Salvador Perez, Royals
  • 1B: Eric Hosmer, Royals
  • 2B: Omar Infante, Royals
  • SS: Alcides Escobar, Royals
  • 3B: Mike Moustakas, Royals
  • OF: Paulo Orlando, Royals
  • OF: Lorenzo Cain, Royals
  • OF: Alex Gordon, Royals
  • DH: Kendrys Morales, Royals

Get it? Fan voting is stupid.

NL Roster

  • C: Bryce Harper, Nationals
  • 1B: Bryce Harper, Nationals
  • 2B: Bryce Harper, Nationals
  • SS: Bryce Harper, Nationals
  • 3B: Bryce Harper, Nationals
  • OF: Bryce Harper, Nationals
  • OF: Bryce Harper, Nationals
  • OF: Bryce Harper, Nationals

Really stupid.

(Photo credit: Keith Allison (Originally uploaded to Flickr)[https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/])

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