Completely Real and Serious Santa Claus Odds

We here at MTS aren’t immune to the Christmas season.  With just over a week until Santa’s big day, we’re sure that everyone is getting pretty darn excited about his impending arrival.

But is your excitement all for naught?

As logicians have long told us, just because something happens over and over again – like say, Santa showing up on Christmas Eve and filling your stocking with Bread GlovesPajama JeansZoomies, and the like – doesn’t mean it will continue to happen.

Have you ever thought about all the things that need to go right in order for you to enjoy toasty, floury, gluten-filled hand-warmers on Christmas morning? Santa has to get to work on time, defrost the sled, make it down the chimney you don’t have, and exist in the first place.

On top of that, you – yes, you – have to be on the nice list.

With so many things that could go wrong, it feels like only a matter of time until something does. On that note, it’s high time we looked at some very real and serious Santa Claus-related odds.

Real and Serious Santa Claus Odds:

Odds Santa gets snowed in: 1000/1

Let’s give credit where credit is due. Snow is this man’s terrain. He also has minions – or slaves, depending on who you ask – to shovel him out of any particularly large snowfall.

Odds Santa oversleeps: 25/1

He’s been timely so far, but this one is a legitimate concern. Seinfeld listed the litany of things that can go wrong with an alarm: the snooze might not work, you could get am/pm confused, or there could be a separate knob for the alarm volume and the radio volume. And just think about all the hot-toddies the guy must pound on a nightly basis to stay warm.

Odds Santa puts coal in your stocking: 3/1

Let’s be honest: a lot of people are scumbags. But, in my experience, Santa is fairly forgiving. When I was six, my neighbour put his cat in the microwave. He didn’t get coal. We’re guessing only about a quarter of you did something worse than that in the last 12 months.

Odds Santa is real: 1/100

We’re not conspiracy theorists at MTS. We’re not truthers, nor birthers, nor landers. So don’t expect us to believe that this whole “Santa” thing is some elaborate hoax orchestrated by – I don’t even know who – David Blaine?

Odds Santa is seen eating cookies in your kitchen: 1000/1

There haven’t been any credible sightings, so far. While that might seem to belie the whole “Santa exists” thing, we counter with two words and two punctuation marks: magic, bitches!

Over/under on Santa’s weight: 240

More than fat Vat Kilmer, less than skinny Chris Christie.

Odds Santa gets stuck in your chimney: 2/1

We have a sneaking suspicion he gets stuck in a lot of chimneys – just not inextricably stuck. I say again: magic, bitches!

Odds Santa’s Christmas delivery list gets hacked: 5/1

We’re pretty sure he has better security measures than Sony, and that he hasn’t angered the North Koreans lately. Well, not the North Koreans who have access to computers, anyway. Those lucky few seem to be quite well off. I’m sure the rest of North Korea is rather pissed at him for, y’know, leaving them to starve while Americans continue to stuff cheese into every nook and cranny of their food. Or at least they would be pissed, if they had any knowledge of the outside world.

What were we talking about? Oh yeah, SANTA! God I hope he brings me some cheese.

Where will Santa need to stop to service his sleigh?

If he’s like the rest of us mere mortals, he’ll be forced to stop in the worst place possible. So the real question is: what is the worst place to have to stop? We see it as a four-way tie.

Mogadishu: 3/1

Caracas: 3/1

Alderaan: 3/1

Pittsburgh: 3/1

Odds that Santa shaved off his beard: 25/2

Santa’s not a waffler like Alex Trebek. He’s found a look that works, and he rocks it year-in and year-out.

Odds that Santa upgraded to a more modern uniform: 25/2

See above.

Odds on where Santa will vacation on December 26: 

  • Scottsdale: 3/1 (It’s nice and warm this time of year, and Santa will blend in with the pasty Snowbirds who flock south for the Winter.)
  • South Pole: 8/1 (It’s been on his to-do list for a while. But the penguins never called him back, and he’s a little nervous about just showing up.)
  • Silicon Valley: 20/1 (We hear Santa’s not opposed to a working vacation in which he and the elves steal intellectual property from Google and Apple in preparation for next year.)
  • Pittsburgh: 1000/1 (When he stops to service the sleigh, there’s always a chance Santa will fall in love with one or more of Steel Town’s 446 bridges.)


(Photo credit: Geograf at pl.wikipedia [Public domain], from Wikimedia Commons.)


Alexander is the MTS editor-in-chief. Frank, Alex, and Geoff brought him in when they realized that their betting expertise far surpassed their grammatical abilities. He loves overanalyzing college basketball trends. Talking to him during the first weekend of March Madness is like talking to a wall. A very focused wall, but a wall nonetheless.