Motorsports Betting News This Month | Antonelli and Mercedes rule F1, Larson and Martin lead, MotoGP Odds & Market Trends | October 2026

Tony Reyesby Tony Reyes
Updated: October 1, 2026

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Mercedes owns Formula 1 right now. Kimi Antonelli won from 19th on the grid at Monza, his home race. A week later, he won again in Madrid. George Russell answered with a pole-to-flag win in Baku. That’s three straight Silver Arrows wins and a 66-point lead for Antonelli.

The other two series are much tighter. Kyle Larson dominated Kansas and now leads the NASCAR Chase by 26 points. In MotoGP, Jorge Martin holds a 12-point edge over Marc Marquez. The books still make Marquez a heavy favorite.

October is packed. F1 runs Sepang, Singapore, and Austin. NASCAR hits four Chase races. MotoGP starts its Asian swing at Motegi. This page covers where the odds stand and where we see value for the month.

Check out the full F1 betting guide to discover every race market and prop imaginable.

The biggest motorsports betting storylines this week

Mercedes has the best car, and Antonelli is driving it better than anyone. He has eight wins in 15 races. Mercedes leads Ferrari by 160 points in the Constructors’ standings. Bettors have been fading this team at short prices all year, and it hasn’t worked.

Other stories moving the board:

  • The Monza comeback. Antonelli took an engine penalty and started 19th in Italy. He led by lap 18. A well-timed stop under the Virtual Safety Car did the rest. Russell finished second for a Mercedes one-two.
  • Madrid makes it eight. Lando Norris started on pole at the new Madring circuit. A slow stop cost him the lead. Antonelli won from second, and his lead grew to 81 points.
  • Russell wins Baku. Antonelli crashed in Q1 and started 16th. He fought back to fifth. Russell won from pole, his third win of 2026, and trimmed the gap to 66.
  • Verstappen wakes up. Max went third, second, and second in the last three races. Red Bull looks closer. He sits sixth in points, too far back for the title but live for wins.
  • Larson flexes at Kansas. He swept both stages and led 235 laps, a Kansas record. He scored 76 points and turned a one-point lead into 26.
  • Acosta finally wins. Pedro Acosta beat Martin in Austria for his first MotoGP victory. It was KTM’s first premier-class win in over four years.

Futures and Outright Odds Moves

Antonelli was +225 before the season started. He’s now -2000 at BetUS. That’s about a 95% implied chance. Russell is the only other driver priced below +3000. Leclerc and Verstappen are effectively out at +20000.

F1 Drivers’ Championship

Pos Driver Points
1 Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) 302
2 George Russell (Mercedes) 236
3 Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) 199
4 Lando Norris (McLaren) 186
5 Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) 179

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds

Larson is the favorite at +115 at BetUS. Hamlin is right behind at +135. That’s close to a coin flip. Bell at +475 is the last driver with a realistic path at a reasonable price.

Driver Chase Gap Odds
Kyle Larson  Leader +115
Denny Hamlin -26 +135
Christopher Bell -50 +475
Joey Logano -67 +1100
Ryan Blaney -91 +1800
Ty Gibbs -94 +2000
Tyler Reddick -111 +3300
Chase Briscoe -123 +4500

MotoGP World Championship Odds

Here’s the strangest board in motorsports. Martin leads the standings, yet Marquez is the favorite at -335 and Martin is +300. The market thinks Martin’s arm and Marquez’s form matter more than 12 points. Marquez was -280 in August, so he’s gotten even shorter.

MotoGP World Championship (top 5)

Pos Rider Points
1 Jorge Martin (Aprilia) Leader
2 Marc Márquez (Ducati) -12
3 Marco Bezzecchi (Aprilia) -42
4 Pedro Acosta (Ducati) -72
5 Ai Ogura (Aprilia) -84

You can track Martin’s title odds and more on our MotoGP betting page.

Team, Health and Form Watch

F1: Antonelli’s Baku crash was his biggest mistake in months. His lead shrank by 15 points. Watch his qualifying at Sepang for any sign of nerves. Leclerc crashed out on lap 2 at Monza, which ended Ferrari’s home hopes early. Hamilton is still Ferrari’s points leader at 199.

F1 Red Bull: Verstappen’s run of podiums is the most interesting form shift. Isack Hadjar added a third place in Baku. Red Bull now has real speed on low-downforce tracks. That matters for race-winner markets, not the title.

NASCAR: Austin Cindric ran second at Kansas and jumped to ninth in points. Team Penske looks strong on the intermediates. Josh Berry’s 35th-place finish and Noah Gragson’s engine failure were the big hits. Logano’s tire problem dropped him to 20th.

MotoGP: Martin is the story here. He says he’s ‘not at my 100%’ after arm problems. He skipped surgery before Japan. He also crashed at Motegi last year and broke his collarbone. That history is part of why the books lean Marquez.

MotoGP – Marc Marquez: His comeback is remarkable. He was 102 points down after Mugello. He swept Aragon and won Misano to level the gap. Then he missed the podium in Austria. Even so, the market sees him as the stronger rider over the final seven rounds.

Futures market check: where we see the value

F1: There’s no value on Antonelli at -2000. You’d risk $2,000 to win $100. Russell at +1600 is the only hedge that makes sense. He’s won three races this year in the same car. If Antonelli has another bad weekend, that number drops fast. Constructors’ futures are over in practice. Look to race-winner markets instead.

NASCAR: Hamlin at +135 is our lean. Twenty-six points is less than one bad race. He’s won the last two Cup races at Las Vegas, where the month starts. Larson at +115 is fair but not exciting. Bell at +475 makes a good small-stakes saver. Logano won Bristol, but +1100 still feels long for a reason.

MotoGP: Martin at +300 is the best value on any board this month. He leads the standings. He won the sprint in Austria and finished second in the race. Yes, the arm is a risk. But +300 implies only a 25% chance for the points leader. If you believe he’s close to healthy, that’s a big gap. Bezzecchi at +1200 is a fair long shot at 42 points back.

Betting trends we’re watching

F1: Mercedes has won three straight and 11 of 15 races. Back the Silver Arrows in head-to-head and podium markets. Sepang is a new venue for this generation of cars. The track hasn’t hosted F1 since 2017. Rain is common there. A wet race could play into Norris’ hands.

NASCAR: Larson leads the Chase, but intermediate tracks dominate October. Vegas is a 1.5-mile oval, like Kansas. Larson just showed what he can do there. Talladega on October 25 is the wild card. Fade favorites in single-race markets at the superspeedway.

MotoGP: This season has no clear boss. Martin, Marquez, Bezzecchi, and Acosta have all led the standings. Weather keeps showing up as a factor, and rain could hit Motegi. Wet races open up value on riders priced outside the top three.

What to watch for in October

F1: Sepang hosts the relocated Bahrain GP on October 4. Antonelli will be the clear favorite after two wins in his last three starts. Russell is the obvious threat after Baku. Singapore follows on October 11 with the season’s final sprint. Austin closes the month on October 25. A Singapore clinch is no longer possible after Baku. Austin is the earliest chance, and it would take a near-perfect month.

NASCAR: Four Chase races take place in October: Las Vegas on October 4, Charlotte on October 11, Phoenix on October 18, and Talladega on October 25. Hamlin has won the last two Cup races at Vegas, so expect him near the top of the board. Martinsville on November 1 and Homestead on November 8 finish the schedule.

MotoGP: Japan at Motegi on October 4 and Indonesia at Mandalika on October 11 run back-to-back. Australia at Phillip Island follows on October 25. That’s 111 points up for grabs in October alone. Martin’s arm will be tested on that schedule. The title could swing three times before November.

What Could Move the Odds

  • Another Antonelli DNF. One more bad weekend and Russell’s +1600 shortens fast. Mercedes reliability is the hidden risk.
  • Martin’s health. Any setback with his arm at Motegi sends Marquez even shorter. A strong weekend could flip this market.
  • Talladega chaos. One big wreck can erase a 26-point lead. Larson and Hamlin both need a clean day there.
  • Weather in Asia. Rain at Sepang, Motegi, or Mandalika scrambles race-winner prices. It also helps riders and drivers chasing big gaps.
  • Strategy calls. Pit timing under the Virtual Safety Car decided Monza and Madrid. Expect it to matter again in Singapore.

Previous motorsports betting news updates

  • [October 2, 2026]: Antonelli wins Monza and Madrid, leads by 66. Larson takes the Chase lead at Kansas. Acosta wins Austria as Martin leads Marquez by 12.
  • [August 31, 2026]: Norris wins the Dutch GP, Verstappen crashes at home. Hamlin clinches the NASCAR regular season. Marquez sweeps Aragon to cut Martin’s MotoGP lead to 19.
  • [July 31, 2026]: Norris wins Hungary as F1 breaks for summer, Antonelli leads by 50. Heim stuns at the Brickyard. Márquez wins German GP, cuts MotoGP deficit to 18.
  • [June 30, 2026]: Russell wins Austria, cuts Antonelli’s lead to 40. Hamlin takes NASCAR lead from Reddick by 1. Martin takes the MotoGP lead after Bezzecchi crashes at Assen.
  • [June 1, 2026]: Antonelli wins Canada, leads by 43. Hamlin wins Nashville but Reddick still leads by 122. Bezzecchi wins Mugello, up 17 on Martin. Márquez is back from surgery.
  • [May 12, 2026]: Antonelli wins Miami GP. Reddick takes Kansas. Bezzecchi-Martin within 1 point after Le Mans. Márquez out for French and Catalan.

For a deeper look at race-by-race F1 odds and props, visit our Formula 1 betting hub.

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Tony Reyes

Tony is a pro sports journalist who dedicates most of his free time to watching the latest matches and games on TV. When he's not participating in sports-related activities or seeing his friends, Tony enjoys outdoor activities such as hiking, cycling, and basketball. In addition to being a sports expert, Tony has extensive knowledge of finances and accou...

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