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Good morning, students!
Today, your MyTopSportsbooks betting tutorial will continue with a brand new topic: expected value.
In this article, we will discuss what EV betting is and address how it impacts your expected winnings. We will also touch on various topics surrounding expected value betting and explain how they relate to your wagers and the bookmaker’s odds.
Ready to get started? Let’s go!
What is Expected Value in Sports Betting?
While many bettors have heard of expected value in sports betting, how many can say, hand-on-heart, that they have a clear and concise understanding of this term?
Put simply, EV measures the probability gap, or expectation gap, between the bettor and the sportsbook. The bookmakers/oddsmakers list what they believe are the probabilities for all the different bet types. The EV is reflected in the betting lines for the Moneyline, point spread, totals, over/under and anything else you can get a bet down on. Remember that most sportsbooks in North America incorporate ‘American odds’, which have a plus sign for underdogs and minus signs for favorites.
The line can change as the probabilities of a win and loss change.
Let’s see how it works with a practical example. Imagine the line for an underdog win at +120 is more likely a winner than an underdog listed at +240. On the flip side, a favorite listed at -185 stands a better chance of winning than a favorite at -115. Here, it gets tricky when you convert the line numbers to implied probability. Imagine you wanted to make an NFL bet on a game between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots. The sportsbook may set the line at +100, which means a coin flip on the outcome. If the bettor thinks the Patriots have a better than 50 percent chance to win the game, the EV would be positive. If the bettor thinks the Patriots don’t have a chance against the Bills, they would note the game as a negative EV on the coin toss odds.
It works the same for NBA betting or any other sporting event. You can make value bets on parlays, but you shouldn’t wait for the closing line. Rather, you should bet as soon as you identify the +EV.
Is Expected Value Important for Bettors?
Weighing the pros and cons of a prospective sports bet against the EV is one place the ‘sharps’ can get an advantage against the sportsbooks. Novice sports bettors make one common mistake that drains their bankroll: waiting until the last minute to go over the betting board. Newbies may consult the NFL odds on Sunday morning, hoping to find winners to put on their betting slip. Experienced bettors seeking +EV, on the other hand, will review the line as early as possible to find out whether the oddsmakers have overvalued or undervalued the game they are looking at. The best value is found early in the week, as by Thursday (for NFL bets), the oddsmakers and sportsbooks have already made adjustments to the lines. For sharps, identifying +EV is the foundation of their betting strategy. Casual bettors, known in gambling parlance as public money, don’t use +EV enough.
Many sports bettors have an overemphasized sense of their betting prowess, and their ego can often make it impossible for them to win over the long haul. Sportsbooks like Fanduel, BetMGM, Draftkings and Caesars have spent millions of dollars over many years dissecting events. They create efficient lines that protect their exposure using algorithms and programs, which is why they are some of the best oddsmakers in the business. Professional gamblers have a success rate of 53-55 percent, so the sportsbooks must be doing something right!
Have you ever considered why online sportsbooks give new bettors free bets and promo codes to gamble on their site, or why casinos offer free drinks and other perks at casinos? It’s because they have the edge!
Tips for Positive Expected Value
Stay Away From Your Favorite Team
+EV bettors avoid ‘heartstring’ bets at all costs. Instead, they look for the best value on any given day and leave their favorite jersey in the closet
Leave Everybody’s Favorite Team Alone
Rather than following the crowd by betting on a popular team, you should determine if this is a value bet that will secure a profit.
Stay Away From Everyone’s Favorite League
As with the first two points, you should consider if value can be found by betting on popular leagues.
Home Favorites are a No-No
Local favorites aren’t necessarily the best EV bets. You should be cautious when using local sportsbooks to place a bet on home teams. Often, they represent the sentimental choice and not the best EV bet.
Heavy Favorites are not Your Best Bet.
National favorites often inflate the odds, which in turn reduces the payout. Bettors must consider the underdog’s value when assessing value and review discrepancies between the sportsbook and the bettor’s opinion. While the public bets on the favorites, sharps will look for extra value by studying the underdogs.
The Best Bet can be No Bet at All.
The sportsbook is well-equipped to protect itself against exposure to discrepancies. There will be times when there is no value in the favorite or the underdog. Don’t let your heart rule your mind. When you can’t find +EV bets, you can simply walk away!
Get After a +EV bet Early.
If you are serious about +EV bets, you need to check the betting lines as soon as they are posted. The early lines haven’t been adjusted to reflect the sharp or public money coming, and that is your best chance to find a +EV bet.
Shop Around
We at MTS advise anyone looking to get a +EV down at a sportsbook to shop for the best available bet. We suggest you review every site you can find, and we recommend trying these online sportsbooks to find the best odds. Remember, a fool and his money are easily parted. Don’t let the sportsbooks make a fool out of you.
Best Offshore Sportsbooks 