- What: UFC 295 main event
- Who: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
- Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023
- Location: Madison Square Garden in New York City
- Time: Early Prelims (TBA) Prelims (8: 00 p.m. ET) PPV Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (TBA), Prelims (TBA), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones makes his first title defense in the main event of the ESPN+ streaming UFC 295 pay-per-view card from Madison Square Garden. Jones was the light-heavyweight champ before he gave up his title to move to heavyweight, faces the only man in UFC history to defend the UFC heavyweight crown three times, Stipe Miocic. Here is some information on Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic before we discuss the betting breakdown for the UFC 295 PPV fight card.
Jon Jones (27-1-0-1) had two stints as the UFC light heavyweight champion between September 2011 and February 2020. He defended his crown a total of 11 times. His first run as champion lasted a UFC light heavyweight record 1,501 days. His eight consecutive title defenses during his first stint as champ is also a UFC 205-pound record. Jones moved to heavyweight in March 2023. In his first fight at heavyweight Jones submitted Ciryl Gane in the first round to win the vacant UFC heavyweight championship.
Stipe Miocic (20-4) is a two-time UFC heavyweight champ. He defended the crown a record three times in his first run and once in his second stint as champ. Miocic is coming off a March 2021 knockout loss to former heavyweight kingpin Francis Ngannou.
UFC 295 main event: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic betting picks
|To Win UFC 295 Main Event|
UFC 295 main event: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic betting breakdown
Jon Jones didn’t answer many questions about his heavyweight ability when he faced Ciryl Gane. Yes, Jones looked good, but the fight only lasted 124 seconds, and Gane did not look good in that scrap. Further, there are questions about Jones’ future in the UFC. There has been talk about the 36-year-old retiring after UFC 295.
Jones has an advantage in this fight when it comes to wrestling. One of the best wrestlers in the sport’s history. Jones has excellent takedowns and defensive wrestling. What Jones does not have is one-punch knockout power. Most of his knockout wins are due to volume striking and breaking down his opponent. Between September 2013 and February 2020, Jones only had one knockout win. As for submissions, Jones is good on the ground, but he went nearly 11 years between submission victories in the UFC. Jones’ cardio, training, and focus were not questions early in his career, but all of those aspects of his game were questioned during his second run as UFC champ.
Stipe Miocic is coming off a nearly 1,000-day layoff heading into this contest. That’s a significant worry about a man who turned 41 in August. It’s even a bigger concern because he’s facing an opponent as skilled as Jones. Miocic relies mainly on his striking. He has picked up 15 knockout wins in his career, but he is hittable and can be knocked out himself, as three of his career losses have come by KO. He has never been submitted. Miocic is a well-rounded fighter, but it’s tough to ignore his time away from the octagon.
UFC 295 main event: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic – Who has the edge?
When it comes to significant strikes landed, these two are close. Jones averages 4.29 landed per minute, while Miocic lands 4.82 per minute. There is a difference in defensive striking that favors Jones. The champ gets hit 2.22 times per minute with a defensive rate of 64 percent, which is better than Miocic’s 3.82 strikes absorbed to go along with a defensive percentage of 54. As for grappling, Jones and Miocic are close in the number of takedowns they land per 15 minutes, with Jones hitting 1.93 and Miocic landing 1.86. Defensively, Jones is better than Miocic on this front. He has a takedown defense rate of 95 percent, while Miocic stops 68 percent of his foe’s takedown attempts.
Best Bets: UFC 295 main event: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
As with any heavyweight fight, a knockout from either man is not out of the question. With that, if one thinks Miocic, the betting underdog, will get the win, there is a great deal of betting value in picking him to win via KO. My betting pick for this fight the betting favorite, Jon Jones. Unless he takes Miocic lightly, Jones will win at UFC 295. My betting prediction is that Jones will prevail by decision. There is an outside chance of Miocic’s cardio failing him, and with that, a Jones stoppage victory via submission or knockout is not out of the question.
Best UFC 295 Main Event Betting Pick: Jon Jones to beat Stipe Miocic via decision.
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