Max Verstappen made it a magnificent nine successive wins in his home race last weekend. This weekend, the Dutchman is favored to win again at the world-famous Monza circuit in the 2023 Italian F1 Grand Prix. Here, we look ahead to the race and tell you the best value bets in our latest Formula 1 betting picks.
- What; 2023 Italian Grand Prix – Round 15
- Where; Autodromo Nazionale Monza, Italy
- When; Sunday, September 3rd, 2023
- Time; 9 am ET
- Laps; 53
- Race Distance; 306.72 km
Max Verstappen has the chance to create history this weekend at Monza. If he wins again, it will be his tenth successive victory and break the nine-race winning streak set by Sebastian Vettel back in 2013, also in a Red Bull.
MAX VERSTAPPEN WINS THE DUTCH GRAND PRIX 🏆
— Formula 1 (@F1) August 27, 2023
To achieve history, Verstappen is the -425 betting favorite with the top F1 betting sites. But as the rain showed last weekend in the Dutch Grand Prix, taking Verstappen at such short prices can be risky.
Verstappen only won the Dutch Grand Prix by just under 4 seconds from Fernando Alonso. But a win is a win. And it now means that Verstappen has 339 points in the World Championship. That’s a lead of 138 points over his closest rival, Sergio Perez, who sits on 201 points.
Betting to win the 2023 F1 Italian Grand Prix
The top-rated Formula 1 betting sites make Verstappen -425 to win the Italian Grand Prix this weekend. For a long period this season, he was -300, but even those days seem long gone.
Out on his own and second in the betting is his teammate, Sergio Perez, who is +1000. Then, the next section of drivers, with Lando Norris, Lewis Hamilton, and Fernando Alonso all at +2000.
The only other drivers given a glimmer of hope are Charles Leclerc (+2500), Oscar Piastri (+3300), George Russell (+3300), and Carlos Sainz (+6600). Full race betting is available on our F1 odds table.
Betting to win the 2023 Drivers Championship without Max Verstappen
The unexpected appearance of Fernando Alonso on the podium last Sunday has seen the Spaniard re-emerge as a contender in the betting to win the World Championship without Verstappen.
— Total Motorsport (@TotMotorsport) August 27, 2023
Alonso was +3300 ahead of the race at Zandvoort. But his odds are now all but halved as he’s been cut to +1600 after his second-place finish last Sunday.
Sergio Perez finished fourth in that race, and that has seen him consolidate his position at the top of this market. The under-pressure Mexican was -400 before the race. He is now -600.
As for the only other driver in the mix, Lewis Hamiton is +400 after his disappointing sixth place in the Dutch Grand Prix. He was +275 before the race.
Betting to win the Constructors Championship without Red Bull
In betting to win the Constructors Championship without Red Bull, it’s a similar story of consolidation for the market leader. Mercedes were -350 going into the race, and they are now -500.
As for their main rival, Ferrari, they went into the Dutch Grand Prix at +350. But after a disappointing race that saw their drivers record a DNF and fifth place, they are now out to +500. And this after Leclerc was making plenty of noise in the build-up to the race.
Our 2023 Italian Grand Prix Race Picks
When Sebastian Vettel won nine successive Grand Prix back in 2013, they were the final nine races of the season. If there had been more races, Vettel probably would have won them.
And that’s where we seem to be with Max Verstappen. It’s like he’s just going to keep on winning for the remainder of the season. But there will probably be one week when something goes wrong. And with him needing to win this race to beat the record, it would be typical that it’s this week the double world champion fails to win.
And we don’t want to be backing him when it all goes wrong. Especially not at -425. So in our F1 betting picks this weekend, we’re giving Verstappen a miss.
Leclerc for top-three finish +250
Again this weekend we’re looking at a podium finish for Charles Leclerc. He’s +250 in this market, and that makes him a good value pick.
It’s hard to blame Leclerc for his team’s shocking performance last weekend. The pit stop fiasco when his tires weren’t even ready may have played a part in Leclerc running the car wide onto gravel later in the race, causing the damage to the floor which ultimately forced him to retire.
Here is a picture of Ferrari’s pitstop, with no tyres prepared ahead of the stop
— Fastest Pitstop (@FastestPitStop) August 27, 2023
The Ferrari team will have to up their game this week. It is their home Grand Prix, and as Carlos Sainz showed with his fifth-place finish last Sunday, the car isn’t performing too badly.
Leclerc is quicker than Sainz, and without the issues, he may well have finished on the podium. We think Charles Leclerc is a good bet to put that right this weekend. And with it being his team’s home Grand Prix, why not throw a couple of very speculative dollars on any Ferrari winning the race at +1600?
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