Max Verstappen arrives in Mexico City looking for his 16th race win of the 2023 Formula 1 season. The triple world champion is the betting favorite to win at -325. In our latest Formula 1 betting picks, we tell you if he will win and what the best bets are to make on this weekend’s Mexico City Grand Prix.
- What; 2023 Mexico City Grand Prix – Round 20
- Where; Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, Mexico City, Mexico
- When; Sunday, October 29th, 2023
- Time; 3 pm ET
- Laps; 71
- Track Length; 4.304 km
- Race Distance; 305.354 km
- Most Constructor Wins; Red Bull and Lotus 4
- Most Driver Wins; Max Verstappen 4
The breakdown of the 18 races this season is 15 wins for Max Verstappen, two for Sergio Perez, and one for Carlos Sainz. The Italian Grand Prix was canceled due to flooding, which explains why there have only been 18 races when we are on Round 20.
The season has just been a procession for Verstappen and Red Bull, and last weekend in Austin, we had the same result, although the race wasn’t plain sailing for the three-time world champ.
Verstappen wins in Austin
Yes, Max Verstappen held off a late charge from Lewis Hamilton to win the United States Grand Prix by just 2.2 seconds.
#F1 – Max Verstappen wins hard-fought US Grand Prix ahead of Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris 🇺🇸
— FIA (@fia) October 22, 2023
In any normal routine win for the Dutchman, his victory margin is usually around 25 to 30 seconds. So what went wrong in Austin? In the Sprint, nothing did. Verstappen won the 19-lap race by 9.46 seconds ahead of second-placed Lewis Hamiton. The Red Bull performed as normal. And once out in front, Verstappen did what he does best and left the field behind.
But come to Grand Prix race day on Sunday, it was a different story as Verstappen battled his car around the circuit, continually complaining about his breaks to his team over the radio. Had Mercedes not called their pit strategy wrong, they may well have pulled off a famous victory.
Lewis Hamilton has been disqualified from the US Grand Prix. pic.twitter.com/K53ExC1rb0
— Mercedes-AMG F1 News (@MercedesNewsUK) October 23, 2023
However, in the end, it would have proven fruitless, as Lewis Hamilton was disqualified for a technical infringement. But that wasn’t regarded as much of a contributing factor in the improved performance of the Mercedes car.
So with the Red Bull struggling, the question now is should the rest of the paddock be given renewed hope ahead of the Mexico City Grand Prix?
Betting to Win the 2023 Mexico City Grand Prix
At the start of the week, Max Verstappen was -325 to win the race, with Lewis Hamilton next at +900. There was a brief period when Verstappen was trimmed to -300, and Hamilton went to +800. But we are now back at the original odds of Verstappen at -325 and Hamilton at +900.
Behind the leading two contenders are Sergio Perez at +1100, with Lando Norris and George Russell both next at +1500.
Along with the performances of Red Bull and Mercedes in Austin last week, those odds are also probably influenced by last year’s result in Mexico. In 2022, Max Verstappen was in Pole Position and won the race. Lewis Hamilton was second, Sergio Perez was third, and George Russell had the fastest lap. Both Red Bull and Mercedes seem to like this circuit.
Full race betting is available on our F1 odds table. The odds we have used are taken from the best Formula 1 betting sites.
Verstappen set to win again in Mexico?
Even with his car underperforming last week, Max Verstappen still managed to win in Austin last Sunday. It looks increasingly likely that he will win all the remaining races this season, and at -325 to win in Mexico, he has better odds than he usually does to win a Grand Prix (he is usually around -450).
We’re not convinced he is worth the risk. But if you wish to back him, go ahead. He will probably be standing at the top of the podium.
Our 2023 Mexico City Grand Prix Betting Picks
For our F1 betting picks this week, we are looking at alternative betting markets. The focus seems to only be on Red Bull and Mercedes, and as a result, in the betting to finish in the top three, Verstappen is -700, with Lewis Hamilton and Sergio Perez both at -150. Lando Norris of McLaren, for some reason, is out at +120.
We are not going near Perez at odds on prices, even in his home Grand Prix. Mercedes could be worth following, but rather than backing Hamilton to finish on the podium at -150, why not back him to win the race at +900?
That is an outside bet, given Verstappen will probably win. So for our main betting pick, we are looking at Lando Norris. The McLaren driver finished third on the road last week, later elevated to second after Hamilton’s disqualification. In his last four races, he has finished in the top three, and this weekend he is an outsider at +120 to stand on one of the podium places again.
We think those odds are too good to ignore. So, for our main 2023 Mexico City Grand Prix betting pick, we are going with Lando Norris to finish in the top three.
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