- Buffalo (5-5) is a 6.5-point home favorite over the Jets (4-5) in Week 11 of the NFL season
- Josh Allen leads the league in interceptions (11) and turnovers (14) this year
- Sunday’s contest kicks off from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY at 4:25pm ET
Buffalo dropped out of the AFC playoff picture with a 24-22 loss to the Broncos on Monday night. Josh Allen and the Bills will now face a Jets team that defeated them in the season opener despite losing Aaron Rodgers in the first drive of the game.
With both fanbases unhappy heading into week 11, let’s check the odds on this crucial AFC East matchup. Before we do, here’s where you can find the best Super Bowl betting tips and the top betting sites for NFL football in 2023.
Bills vs Jets
|Spread||Money Line||Total Points|
|New York Jets||+6.5 (-110)||+265||Ov 40.5 (-110)|
|Buffalo Bills||-6.5 (-110)||-330||Un 40.5 (-110)|
Josh Allen’s mistakes
Buffalo left 12 men on the field in the final seconds of a 24-22 loss to Denver on Monday, giving Wil Lutz a second chance at the game-winning field goal. It was one of many Bills blunders. James Cook was stripped of the ball on the first play from scrimmage. And Josh Allen fumbled a hand off and tossed two interceptions, one which was the result of a Gabe Davis drop.
Sean McDermott’s club is now 5-5 with the NFL’s third-toughest schedule ahead of them. While this Sunday’s contest with the Jets is winnable, Robert Saleh’s D has given Allen fits recently. The 27-year-old was picked off three times in the week 1 loss to Gang Green. And in two games last year, he was held 352 combined passing yards with a TD and two INTs.
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) November 14, 2023
Zach Wilson fails again
New York is coming off back-to-back primetime losses to the Chargers and Raiders. Every week, they trot out Zach Wilson at quarterback despite going 36 consecutive offensive drives and counting without a TD. Wilson had 263 passing yards and rushed for 54 yards in the 16-12 loss to Las Vegas on Sunday night, but the offense was stuck in mud as usual.
However, the Jets defense always gives them a chance. They are allowing the 7th-fewest points per game (19.1) in the NFL and the 3rd-fewest passing yards (169.3). Additionally, Josh Allen leads the NFL in interceptions (11) and turnovers (14).
Buffalo vs New York
Buffalo is a 6.5-point home favorites at Orchard Park on Sunday and the over/under is set at 40.5 points. The low total makes sense given that McDermott’s defense has allowed even fewer points per week than the Jets D (18.4 vs 19.1) despite a cavalcade of injuries.
Ken Dorsey is running the NFL’s 8th-highest scoring attack (26.2 points per week). But, the Bills have averaged less than 18 points per game in the last three matchups with New York. Luckily, that will still be more than enough if Allen can limit his turnovers versus Sauce Gardner and company. Nathaniel Hackett’s offense is averaging just 16 points per game, the 3rd-worst mark leaguewide.
This is not ideal: Zach Wilson has thrown a touchdow on just 𝟮𝟬 𝗼𝗳 𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝟵𝟯𝟭 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗿 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀.
His 2.1% touchdown rate is the 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗡𝗙𝗟 𝗵𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 among players with at least 900 passes.
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) November 13, 2023
Despite Josh Allen passing for only 147 yards and a TD, the Bills beat Mike White and the Jets by 8 points at Orchard Park last year. While it’s hard to have faith in an up-and-down team that keeps shooting itself in the foot, Buffalo still has an enormous edge at quarterback.
We’re taking the Bills to cover (-6.5) at home on Sunday with the UNDER 40.5.
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