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- Miami (7-3) is a 9.5-point road favorite over the Jets (4-6) in Week 12
- Jalen Ramsey made two interceptions in the Dolphins win over the Raiders on Sunday
- Black Friday’s matchup kicks off from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ at 8:20pm ET
The Jets will start longtime backup Tim Boyle against the Dolphins after Zach Wilson delivered yet another dreadful performance in a 32-6 loss to Buffalo on Sunday. Miami defeated the Raiders 20-13 in week 11 to stay on top of the AFC East.
Before we check the odds on the NFL’s first-ever Black Friday game and make our bets, here’s where you can find the best Super Bowl betting tips and the top betting sites for NFL football in 2023.
Jets vs Dolphins
 | Spread | Money Line | Total Points |
| Miami Dolphins | -9.5 (-116) | -465 | Ov 40 (-110) |
| New York Jets | +9.5 (-105) | +375 | Un 40 (-110) |
Crash landing
Following their blowout defeat to the Bills, New York has now lost three straight games with only 31 total points scored. After replacing Zach Wilson late in the third quarter, Tim Boyle completed 7 of 14 passes for 33 yards and interception. The 29-year-old NFL journeyman has a 0-3 career record as a starter, with three touchdowns and six picks.
Boyle will face an improving Miami defense that intercepted Raiders rookie Aidan O’Connell three times on Sunday. Two of those picks came courtesy of Jalen Ramsey, who has looked like the missing Jenga piece in Vic Fangio’s D since returning from injury.
From the Insiders on #NFLPlus and @NFLNetwork: The #Jets have a new starting QB — Tim Boyle. pic.twitter.com/SCNIyIzkA5
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 20, 2023
Fins offense slowing?
Once on a historic pace, Miami’s offense has come back down to earth in recent weeks. Tua Tagovailoa had a fumble and an interception in the week 11 win over Las Vegas, but did throw for 325 yards and two touchdowns.
Tyreek Hill showcased his blazing speed with 146 yards and a score. While the Cheetah left the game briefly with a hand injury, he should be a full go on Black Friday. Tyreek is the first player in the Super Bowl era to hit 1,200-plus receiving yards in his club’s first 10 contests.
New York vs Miami
Miami is a 9.5-point road favorite in MetLife Stadium on Black Friday with the over/under set at 40 points. Mike McDaniels’ team paces the league in points per game (30.5) and passing yards per game (291.0) while ranking No. 2 in rushing yards per week (143.0).
Robert Saleh’s defense sits just outside of the top ten in points per game allowed (20.4), limiting opponents to 178.7 passing yards per week (No. 5 in NFL). However, Gang Green is permitting the third-most rushing yards per game (137.6).
Tyreek Hill gave us an update on his Hand injury:
“I think I’ll be fine. The only thing I’m really bummed about I won’t be able to play Fortnite.” pic.twitter.com/g5D9IPezGV
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) November 20, 2023
Possible upset?… no chance
Miami has struggled against big, physical defenses this year, getting outscored by a combined 49 points in three losses to Buffalo, Philadelphia and Kansas City.
While Robert Saleh’s D could present some of the same challenges, they’ll likely be on the field all day with Tim Boyle unlikely to get anything going on offense. Look for the Dolphins to hit some big run plays against an exhausted Jets front.
Best Bet
Miami is a lock to cover (-9.5) with Boyle somehow presenting an even worse option than Zach Wilson at quarterback. While we don’t expect the Dolphins’ offense to go bananas, we like Vic Fangio’s unit to pick up a score on defense for the OVER (40 points).
See below the top sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
