College Football Week 9 Betting Preview: Fading Missouri and Georgia

  • Sometimes you find yourself backing Florida and Kentucky and asking yourself: why?
  • Because they’re good teams, is why
  • Unless Justin Fields plays a lot, in which case…

We finished 1-3 last weekend, which leaves us at 16-12-0 for the season. That was our worst week so far, so we’re looking at breaking this slump.

Kentucky (#12) at Missouri

Team Spread
Kentucky (#12) +7.0 (-105)
Missouri -7.0 (-115)

I like Kentucky a lot, and I love them against the spread in 2018. They’ve produced some great upsets for us this year, and I love this matchup for the Wildcats.

Kentucky at Missouri Statistical Comparison

2018 Stat Kentucky Missouri
Record 6-1 4-3
S&P+ Defensive Rank 4th 70th
S&P+ Offensive Rank 99th 12th
S&P+ Overall Rank 28th 25th

This is a game that Kentucky can keep under control. They’re a balanced, efficient defense, and if anyone on Missouri’s schedule can give Drew Lock trouble, it’s Kentucky.

Also, this spread is just a little too wide. Missouri’s a great team, and they definitely have the potential to blow everyone out, but have suffered some tight games and low-scoring games in 2018. Those games have generally come when Missouri faced off against tougher competition, and Kentucky definitely qualifies.

We haven’t even mentioned Benny Snell yet, who is still averaging 5.4 yards per carry in 2018. He probably won’t get to his 2017 touchdown number (19) this year, but he’s well on his way with nine already.

Betting Tip: Just take Kentucky and the points whenever available.

Georgia (#7) at Florida (#9)

Team Spread
Georgia (#7) -7.0 (-105)
Florida (#9) +7.0 (-115)

Georgia’s a great team, and have all the motivation they need to paste Florida in this year’s cocktail party. The SEC East title hangs in the balance, and with it Georgia’s playoff hopes.

Georgia at Florida Statistical Comparison

2018 Stat Georgia Florida
Record 6-1 6-1
S&P+ Defensive Rank 24th 19th
S&P+ Offensive Rank 6th 32nd
S&P+ Overall Rank 5th 14th

The trouble with this game is the quarterback situation. Georgia’s Jake Fromm was disappointing last week, and calls for true freshman Justin Fields have gotten louder and louder. Fields is by far the more talented quarterback, and head coach Kirby Smart got a first-hand lesson in what a true freshman quarterback can do in the national title game.

If the Bulldogs have used their bye week to install a new game plan that more heavily features Justin Fields, Florida could be in a lot of trouble. He’s exactly the kind of undefendable mobile quarterback that Alabama’s been using to great effect all season, and would kickstart Georgia’s offense.

That’s still an outside possibility, so right now we’re just looking at a road favorite coming off a bad loss with a quarterback controversy. Let’s take the points.

Betting Tip: Take the points.

Geoff Johnson

MTS co-founder Geoff Johnson is a lifelong Mets fan, something he can't do anything about. He has a great track record when it comes to wagering on baseball – largely because he's more than willing to bet against the Mets. His career profits are impressive, but not quite as good as his handsome friend Frank Lorenzo. He wishes he hadn't let Frank write his profile.