Oklahoma Sooners vs Alabama Crimson Tide: Orange Bowl Betting Odds and Pick

  • 2018 Orange Bowl Betting Odds and advice
  • Can Oklahoma keep it close?
  • Is Alabama too good to be stopped?

The 2018 Orange Bowl is the second semifinal of the College Football Playoff. It kicks off at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida, at 8:00 p.m. ET on December 29th.

Orange Bowl: Alabama vs Oklahoma Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Oklahoma (#4) +14.0 (-110) +410 O 77.0
Alabama (#1) -14.0 (-110) -620 U 77.0

A pretty strong spread!

Alabama vs Oklahoma Statistical Comparison

2018 Stat Alabama Oklahoma
Record 13-0 12-1
S&P+ Defensive Rank 8th 16th
S&P+ Offensive Rank 2nd 1st
S&P+ Overall Rank 1st 4th

Can Oklahoma Cover?

This is the main question here. Almost everyone expects Alabama to play in the national title game, but how competitive Oklahoma can make this game is a subject of some debate.

On one hand, Oklahoma has everything you need to upset Alabama. They have a dynamic offense and a fun, mobile quarterback. They have the best offensive line in college football. They can reach into the Georgia Tech playbook and pull out some triple-option stuff whenever they feel like it.

That all might not matter though. It might not even matter that Kyler Murray isn’t feeling well. Alabama’s defense is almost good enough to win a championship by itself, and the Tua-infused offense is probably more than enough to put them over the edge.

All that said, I believe in the points here. Alabama’s been challenged by Playoff opponents before, and went to overtime against Georgia twice in the same calendar year, so it’s not like their games against top competition are all boat races. If Tua comes out like he did against Georgia, Oklahoma could very plausibly run up a big lead.

Vegas Expects an Orange Bowl Shootout

That the over/under on this game is set at 77.0 points should tell you everything you need to know. The offenses are better than the defenses, and Vegas is expecting that imbalance to be exploited back and forth until the clock finally puts an end to it.

In that scenario, the spread becomes very valuable. If both teams are running up against the limit of how fast points can be scored in a college football game, it’ll be extremely difficult for Alabama to mount a greater-than-14-point lead.

Always take the points in a shootout.

Geoff Johnson

MTS co-founder Geoff Johnson is a lifelong Mets fan, something he can't do anything about. He has a great track record when it comes to wagering on baseball – largely because he's more than willing to bet against the Mets. His career profits are impressive, but not quite as good as his handsome friend Frank Lorenzo. He wishes he hadn't let Frank write his profile.