- The New England Patriots are tepid favorites to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
- Super Bowl LIV will be held February 2, 2020, in Miami.
- Only four teams are priced at less than 14/1.
It may not have been a thing of beauty, but the Patriots won the Super Bowl, again. While praising Bill Belichick is justified, it doesn’t do us a lot of good as we look forward. The Pats will be a factor, but just like we saw in this year’s playoffs, next season’s Super Bowl is wide open.
Based on the Conference Championship Games, it makes sense that New England, Kansas City, New Orleans, and the LA Rams are the four early favorites for the 2019 season. Of course with the draft, free agency, and injuries still to come, picking a champ for next season involves a little bit of reading tea leaves.
We know who is drafting where, but not what players they will select. We know who the major free agents are, but not where they will go. How much space under the salary cap each squad has is a known element too, but how they choose to use that cash is up in the air.
Considering it all, let’s look at the early odds from BetOnline.
Odds to Win Super Bowl 54
|Team||Odds to Win Super Bowl 54 at BetOnline (Feb. 4)|
|New England Patriots||+600|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+700|
|Los Angeles Rams||+800|
|New Orleans Saints||+900|
|Green Bay Packers||+1800|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+2000|
|San Francisco 49ers||+3300|
|New York Giants||+4000|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+6600|
|New York Jets||+10000|
|Oakland/San Francisco/Las Vegas Raiders||+10000|
The Favorite: New England Patriots
The following could be pasted from each of the last several seasons. The Pats had another great year, but their Hall of Fame quarterback will be 42 years old when next season comes around, and even the analytics agree their margin over the next-best team this year was small. They are very likely to have Brady and Belichick back, but there is no value at 6/1.
Top Challengers: Rams, Chiefs, Saints
With the AFC and NFC Championship games going to overtime, it was really a coin flip that determined who won it all this past year. It is unclear why all four teams who reached title games are not priced the same. New Orleans, who earned homefield throughout the NFC playoffs, and was robbed of a chance to play for the title, is very tempting at 9/1. Drew Brees is 40 years old, and the Saints do not have a first or third-round draft pick, but they were the favorites this year entering the playoffs, and 9/1 seems like a very fair price.
The Colts made a dramatic comeback with Andrew Luck healthy in 2018 and now have the best salary cap situation in the league to work with. That makes you think at 14/1.
Minnesota and Philadelphia were among the favorites at the start of 2018, dealt with injuries and played most of the season below par, but return young teams that are likely to rebound, so 18/1 and 20/1 are square numbers.
If you are looking for a really big number, let’s go to the Indianapolis playbook, i.e. a team that had an injured quarterback in 2019 but maybe has enough to contend if their signal caller is healthy.
Remember Jimmy Garoppolo? He was unstoppable at the end of 2018 for the 49ers and they have more pieces now. When Cam Newton was healthy, the Panthers started last season 6-2. At 33/1 and 40/1, a small wager could be very profitable on the Niners and Panthers, even if you just leverage it when they start next year well.