- Updated win totals are available for every team in the AFC
- Kansas City (11.5) and Baltimore (11.5) have the highest win totals in the conference
- Taking the OVER on the Jaguars’ 5.0 win total pays out at +130
What teams are bettors feeling good about heading into the 2020 NFL season? We can learn a lot by comparing team win totals back in February with those below.
Take the Colts, for instance. While oddsmakers initially offered them at 7.5 wins (-140), the arrival of quarterback Philip Rivers, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner and two high-octane draft picks in Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor has caused Indianapolis’ total to spike to 8.5 wins (-200).
Let’s examine the shifting betting market in the AFC and uncover some of the best values with the season now less than a month away.
2020 AFC WIN TOTALS
|AFC Teams||Regular-Season Win Totals||Over Odds||Under Odds|
|Kansas City Chiefs||11.5||-135||+105|
|Las Vegas Raiders||7.5||+100||-130|
|Los Angeles Chargers||7.5||-150||+115|
|New England Patriots||9.0||-105||-125|
|New York Jets||6.5||+115||-150|
BALTIMORE RAVENS: UNDER 11.5 WINS
Baltimore’s win total shifted from 11 to 11.5 over the past couple months, making this an UNDER to attack. While the Ravens went 14-2 last year and are now gifted with both the NFC East and AFC South on their schedule, NFL history has proven that magical seasons like Lamar Jackson’s 2019 campaign are impossible to replicate.
The Ravens will face increased divisional competition from the Browns (8.5 win total), who replaced Freddie Kitchens with new coach Kevin Stefanski, and the Steelers (9.0), who have a healthy Ben Roethlisberger after last year’s lost season. Even the Bengals (5.5) are picking up buzz with the arrival of rookie QB Joe Burrow.
.@Lj_era8 says his favorite moment of last season was beating the Patriots in Week 9 😈
“We beat Brady … That’s the guy who I wanted to be. Highlight of my season.”
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) August 9, 2020
As last season’s playoff disappointment versus Tennessee also highlighted, Lamar has trouble playing from behind. Jackson’s PFF passing grade is just 62.2 when trailing over the past two seasons, which ranks 32nd out of 47 qualifiers and puts him behind the likes of Joe Flacco, Dwayne Haskins and Mitchell Trubisky.
Given that Lamar’s running also puts him at an increased risk of injury, we love the UNDER.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: OVER 5 WINS
Just as we’re looking to fade all the optimism for Baltimore, we want to capitalize on the collective pessimism for Jacksonville, whose win total dropped from 6.5 to 5.0 over the past couple months.
While we won’t make the case for the Jaguars as world-beaters, it’s far more likely they reach six wins than fall on their face with four. Pairing new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden with underrated sophomore quarterback Gardner Minshew and third-year receiver D.J. Chark will put points on the board.
Highest passer rating on throws 20+ yards downfield in 2019:
🔹 Gardner Minshew – 129.0
🔹 Patrick Mahomes – 122.9 pic.twitter.com/lyIsQ2f2Dp
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) August 15, 2020
The defense should also show improvement after the first-round selections of cornerback CJ Henderson and edge K’Lavon Chaisson, who will complement Josh Allen on the defensive line after the sophomore pass rusher notched 10.5 sacks in his rookie season.
Jacksonville is widely expected to tank for Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence, but the seats of head coach Doug Marrone and general manager Dave Caldwell couldn’t be hotter, so they’ll have plenty of motivation to win-now.
And while a six-win campaign likely won’t save their jobs, it will make you money. Take the Jags to exceed 5.0 wins at +130.