Dolphins to dump AFC East rival Bills in Week 4 showdown on Sunday

  • Buffalo (2-1) is a 2.5-point home favorite over Miami (3-0) in Week 4 of the NFL season
  • Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen will square off for the sixth time in their careers
  • Sunday’s game kicks off from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY at 1 pm ET

After becoming the first team in NFL history to rack up 700 yards of offense and score 70 points in the same game, the Dolphins are underdogs in Buffalo in week 4. While Miami was busy embarrassing Sean Payton’s Broncos to improve to 3-0 on the season, the Bills took Washington to the woodshed in a 37-3 blowout victory of their own.

Before we check the odds on this classic AFC East matchup, here’s where you can find the best Super Bowl betting tips and the top betting sites for NFL football in 2023.

Bills vs Dolphins

BetOnline ReviewSpreadMoney LineTotal Points
Miami Dolphins+2.5 (-102)+125Un 53.5 (-110)
Buffalo Bills-2.5 (-118)-145Ov 53.5 (-110)

Miami runs all over Denver

Miami’s running backs combined for 350 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in a 70-20 annihilation of the Broncos on Sunday. Rookie De’Von Achane ran for 203 yards and two TDs with another 30 yards and two scores through the air. Not to be outdone, Raheem Mostert piled up 142 total yards while hitting pay dirt four times. The 31-year-old now leads the NFL with six rushing TDs through three games.

Tua Tagovailoa was equally as magical in the 50-point win, completing 23-of-26 passes for 309 yards and four touchdowns. Heading into Buffalo as the 2023 NFL MVP favorite, Tua’s 1,024 passing yards and eight passing touchdowns both rank second in the NFL.

Bills wallop Washington

Buffalo rebounded from a disappointing opening night loss to an Aaron Rodgers-less Jets team with consecutive thrashings of the Raiders and Commanders. The Bills defense intercepted Sam Howell four times, including a pick-six, and racked up nine sacks in Sunday’s 37-3 triumph.

Josh Allen passed for a pedestrian 218 yards with a TD and INT. But, he also avoided sacks throughout the day while his squad rushed for 168 yards on 33 carries. Allen himself accounted for 46 rushing yards and a score.

Miami Dolphinsto cover vs Bills
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UNDER 53.5Bills vs Dolphins
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Buffalo vs Miami

Buffalo is a 2.5-point favorite at Highmark Stadium, and at 53.5 points, the game’s over/under is easily the highest of the week 4 slate. Sean McDermott’s defense ranks third in total yards allowed per game (253), passing yards per game (142.3) and points per game (11.7). However, the Bills D is a mediocre 16th in rushing yards allowed per game (110.7).

Tagovailoa has completed only 87-of-149 passes for 999 yards, with 4 TDs and 4 INTs in five career games against the Bills, so expect Mike McDaniel to dial up more running plays on Sunday.

Recent history

The Bills and Dolphins split their season series in 2022 with Miami taking a 21-19 home victory in September and Buffalo winning a 32-29 shootout in Orchard Park in December. McDermott’s club also narrowly defeated their AFC East rivals, 34-31, in the wild-card round – a game in which Tagovailoa missed with a concussion.

Best Bet

In their last meeting in Buffalo, Miami put 31 points on the board without Tua. McDaniel knows how to beat McDermott’s defense and the Dolphins D is much-improved following the offseason hire of Vic Fangio.

Take Miami to win outright (+125) and improve to 4-0 this Sunday. We also like the UNDER 53.5 points, but it could be close.

Miami Dolphinsto win vs Bills
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Steve Starr

Steve is the quintessential American sports enthusiast. He has mastered the art of Sundays, devoting them to football, and barbecue parties. He proudly wears the hats of a good father, husband and a great dog owner. Aside from his decades of contributing to different top-tier sports publications, Steve has also found his niche on Twitter, where he publishes funny and relatable sports-related insights. When he's not busy tweeting, Steve loves to watch each game unfold live. He possesses an innate talent for finding humor in the sports world, appreciating both the thrilling moments and the comedic mishaps that make each event unique.

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