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- Buffalo (2-1) is a 2.5-point home favorite over Miami (3-0) in Week 4 of the NFL season
- Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen will square off for the sixth time in their careers
- Sunday’s game kicks off from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY at 1 pm ET
After becoming the first team in NFL history to rack up 700 yards of offense and score 70 points in the same game, the Dolphins are underdogs in Buffalo in week 4. While Miami was busy embarrassing Sean Payton’s Broncos to improve to 3-0 on the season, the Bills took Washington to the woodshed in a 37-3 blowout victory of their own.
Before we check the odds on this classic AFC East matchup, here’s where you can find the best Super Bowl betting tips and the top betting sites for NFL football in 2023.
Bills vs Dolphins
 | Spread | Money Line | Total Points |
| Miami Dolphins | +2.5 (-102) | +125 | Un 53.5 (-110) |
| Buffalo Bills | -2.5 (-118) | -145 | Ov 53.5 (-110) |
Miami runs all over Denver
Miami’s running backs combined for 350 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in a 70-20 annihilation of the Broncos on Sunday. Rookie De’Von Achane ran for 203 yards and two TDs with another 30 yards and two scores through the air. Not to be outdone, Raheem Mostert piled up 142 total yards while hitting pay dirt four times. The 31-year-old now leads the NFL with six rushing TDs through three games.
Tua Tagovailoa was equally as magical in the 50-point win, completing 23-of-26 passes for 309 yards and four touchdowns. Heading into Buffalo as the 2023 NFL MVP favorite, Tua’s 1,024 passing yards and eight passing touchdowns both rank second in the NFL.
DEVON ACHANE 67-YARD TD
THE DOLPHINS HAVE 70 POINTS.
📺: #DENvsMIA on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/UQdQ05hqXN pic.twitter.com/bZOSLxVaoa— NFL (@NFL) September 24, 2023
Bills wallop Washington
Buffalo rebounded from a disappointing opening night loss to an Aaron Rodgers-less Jets team with consecutive thrashings of the Raiders and Commanders. The Bills defense intercepted Sam Howell four times, including a pick-six, and racked up nine sacks in Sunday’s 37-3 triumph.
Josh Allen passed for a pedestrian 218 yards with a TD and INT. But, he also avoided sacks throughout the day while his squad rushed for 168 yards on 33 carries. Allen himself accounted for 46 rushing yards and a score.
Buffalo vs Miami
Buffalo is a 2.5-point favorite at Highmark Stadium, and at 53.5 points, the game’s over/under is easily the highest of the week 4 slate. Sean McDermott’s defense ranks third in total yards allowed per game (253), passing yards per game (142.3) and points per game (11.7). However, the Bills D is a mediocre 16th in rushing yards allowed per game (110.7).
Tagovailoa has completed only 87-of-149 passes for 999 yards, with 4 TDs and 4 INTs in five career games against the Bills, so expect Mike McDaniel to dial up more running plays on Sunday.
The Bills pressured Sam Howell on 27 of 39 dropbacks (69.2%), the 2nd-highest pressure rate in a game in the NGS era.
Seven different Bills defenders generated 4+ pressures, led by Ed Oliver (7).#BUFvsWAS | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/E2UmCy78PQ
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 24, 2023
Recent history
The Bills and Dolphins split their season series in 2022 with Miami taking a 21-19 home victory in September and Buffalo winning a 32-29 shootout in Orchard Park in December. McDermott’s club also narrowly defeated their AFC East rivals, 34-31, in the wild-card round – a game in which Tagovailoa missed with a concussion.
Best Bet
In their last meeting in Buffalo, Miami put 31 points on the board without Tua. McDaniel knows how to beat McDermott’s defense and the Dolphins D is much-improved following the offseason hire of Vic Fangio.
Take Miami to win outright (+125) and improve to 4-0 this Sunday. We also like the UNDER 53.5 points, but it could be close.
See below the top sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
